EUR/GBP Weekly Fundamental Analysis October 22-26, 2012 Forecast

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Updated: Aug 20, 2015, 21:00 GMT+00:00

Introduction: The cross tends to move in ranges, with relatively clear barriers. The narrower ranges made it somewhat harder, but it seems to return to

EUR/GBP Weekly Fundamental Analysis October 22-26, 2012 Forecast

Introduction: The cross tends to move in ranges, with relatively clear barriers. The narrower ranges made it somewhat harder, but it seems to return to wider ranges. The GBP is does not seem to move in response to the EUR as directly currently. The UK austerity program vs. The EU debt crisis seems to have them moving in opposing distances. They are developing new trading personalities and there is a good deal of profit to be made trading this pair. They can be volatile.

The interest rate differential between the European Bank(ECB) and the Bank of England(BoE)
European and UK economic data
Growth differentials between the Eurozone and UK

Weekly Analysis and Recommendations

The EUR/GBP is trading at 0.8136 up from its opening on Monday of 0.8055. The euro gained all week, on hopes for some resolve from the EU Summit. Even strong eco data in the UK with jobs and retail sales reporting well above forecast, could not trump the strength of the euro leading into the Summit. Markets were sure Spain would request a bailout and Greece would be resolved. When the Minister’s departed the Summit outside of moving forward on banking supervisor little else in the near term seemed to be accomplished.

Date	Last	Open	High	Low	Change %
Oct 19, 2012	0.8136	0.8140	0.8147	0.8122	-0.05%
Oct 18, 2012	0.8140	0.8126	0.8147	0.8110	0.17%
Oct 17, 2012	0.8126	0.8127	0.8130	0.8108	-0.01%
Oct 16, 2012	0.8127	0.8064	0.8137	0.8062	0.78%
Oct 15, 2012	0.8064	0.8055	0.8078	0.8040	0.10%

The GBP remained weak as the BoE is expected to inject additional stimulus this week, reducing the value of the pound. Also 3rd quarter GDP is due. The big event for this pair will be Mr. Draghi’s speech on Tuesday.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of October 15-19, 2012 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD

Date	Currency	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Oct. 15	GBP	Rightmove House Price Index (MoM)	3.5%		-0.6%
	CHF	PPI (MoM)	0.3%	0.2%	0.5%
	USD	Core Retail Sales (MoM)	1.1%	0.6%	1.0%
	USD	Retail Sales (MoM)	1.1%	0.8%	1.2%
	USD	NY Empire State Manufacturing Index	-6.2	-4.5	-10.4
Oct. 16	GBP	Core CPI (YoY)	2.1%	2.1%	2.1%
	GBP	CPI (YoY)	2.2%	2.2%	2.5%
	GBP	PPI Input (MoM)	-0.2%	-0.1%	1.9%
	GBP	CPI (MoM)	0.4%	0.4%	0.5%
	GBP	PPI Input (YoY)	-1.2%	-0.8%	1.1%
	EUR	CPI (YoY)	2.6%	2.7%	2.7%
	EUR	German ZEW Economic Sentiment	-11.5	-15.0	-18.2
	EUR	ZEW Economic Sentiment	-1.4	-1.1	-3.8
	EUR	Core CPI (YoY)	1.5%	1.6%	1.5%
	USD	Core CPI (MoM)	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
	USD	CPI (MoM)	0.6%	0.5%	0.6%
	USD	CPI (YoY)	2.0%	1.9%	1.7%
	USD	Core CPI (YoY)	2.0%	2.0%	1.9%
	USD	TIC Net Long-Term Transactions	90.0B	45.3B	67.2B
	USD	Industrial Production (MoM)	0.4%	0.2%	-1.4%
Oct. 17	GBP	Average Earnings Index +Bonus	1.7%	1.6%	1.6%
	GBP	Claimant Count Change	-4.0K	-1.0K	-14.2K
	USD	Building Permits	0.894M	0.810M	0.801M
	USD	Housing Starts	0.872M	0.770M	0.758M
Oct. 18	GBP	Retail Sales (MoM)	0.6%	0.4%	-0.1%
	GBP	Retail Sales (YoY)	2.5%	2.1%	2.5%
	EUR	Spanish 10-Year Obligation Auction	5.458%		5.666%
	USD	Initial Jobless Claims	388K	365K	342K
	USD	Continuing Jobless Claims	3252K	3275K	3281K
	USD	Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index	5.7	1.0	-1.9
Oct. 19	USD	Existing Home Sales	4.75M	4.75M	4.83M

Historical: From 2010 to Present

Highest: 0.9150 EUR on March 01, 2010.

Average: 1.1548 EUR over this period.

Lowest: 0.7758 EUR on July 22, 2012

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Oct. 24	07:58	EUR	French Manufacturing PMI	44.0	42.7
	08:28	EUR	German Manufacturing PMI	48.0	47.4
	09:00	EUR	German Ifo Business Climate Index	101.6	101.4
	09:00	EUR	German Current Assessment	109.7	110.3
	09:00	EUR	German Business Expectations	94.3	93.2
	11:00	GBP	CBI Industrial Trends Orders		-8
	15:00	USD	New Home Sales	385K	373K
Oct.26	07:00	EUR	GfK German Consumer Climate	5.9	5.9
	08:00	CHF	KOF Leading Indicators	1.67	1.67