EUR/GBP Weekly Fundamental Analysis September 10-14, 2012, Forecast

By:

Updated: Jan 1, 2011, 00:00 GMT+00:00

Introduction: The cross tends to move in ranges, with relatively clear barriers. The narrower ranges made it somewhat harder, but it seems to return to

EUR/GBP Weekly Fundamental Analysis September 10-14, 2012, Forecast

Introduction: The cross tends to move in ranges, with relatively clear barriers. The narrower ranges made it somewhat harder, but it seems to return to wider ranges. The GBP is does not seem to move in response to the EUR as directly currently. The UK austerity program vs. The EU debt crisis seems to have them moving in opposing distances. They are developing new trading personalities and there is a good deal of profit to be made trading this pair. They can be volatile.

The interest rate differential between the European Bank(ECB) and the Bank of England(BoE)
European and UK economic data
Growth differentials between the Euro zone and UK

Weekly Analysis and Recommendations

The EUR/GBP ended the week at 0.8006 climbing above the historical 79 level. This was the battle of the banks, this month again, with the BoE holding rates and policy, while Super Mario and the ECB introduced their all new Outright Monetary Transaction Bond Sterilization Buying program. Markets hailed Mr. Draghi for keeping his pledge to save the euro. This program is difficult and faces many problems in the next few months, but it is being viewed by traders as a positive step forward.

While the GBP had an interesting week with continued positive eco data. PMI reported above forecast, while all of the EU declined and then on Friday report after report was positive, with PPI soaring.

Date	Last	Open	High	Low	Change %
Sep 07, 2012	0.8006	0.7928	0.8008	0.7927	0.98%
Sep 06, 2012	0.7928	0.7923	0.7946	0.7907	0.05%
Sep 05, 2012	0.7924	0.7900	0.7930	0.7887	0.29%
Sep 04, 2012	0.7901	0.7926	0.7943	0.7900	-0.32%
Sep 03, 2012	0.7926	0.7925	0.7934	0.7907	0.01%

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of September 3-7, 2012 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Sep. 03	08:15	CHF	Retail Sales (YoY)	3.2%	4.3%	3.3%
	08:30	CHF	SVME PMI	46.7	49.0	48.6
	08:45	EUR	Italian Manufacturing PMI	43.60	45.00	44.30
	08:50	EUR	French Manufacturing PMI	46.0	46.2	46.2
	08:55	EUR	German Manufacturing PMI	44.7	45.1	45.1
	09:00	EUR	Manufacturing PMI	45.1	45.3	45.3
	09:30	GBP	Manufacturing PMI	49.5	46.2	45.2
Sep. 04	06:45	CHF	GDP (QoQ)	-0.1%	0.2%	0.5%
	08:00	EUR	Spanish Unemployment Change	38.20K		-27.80K
	15:00	USD	ISM Manufacturing Index	49.6	50.0	49.8
	15:40	GBP	Services PMI	53.7	51.5	51.0
Sep. 05	08:15	CHF	CPI (MoM)	0.0%	0.1%	-0.5%
	10:00	EUR	Retail Sales (MoM)	-0.2%	-0.2%	0.1%
	10:35	EUR	German 10-Year Bund Auction	1.420%		1.420%
	13:30	USD	Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ)	2.2%	1.8%	1.6%
	13:30	USD	Unit Labor Costs (QoQ)	1.5%	1.5%	1.7%
Sep. 06	08:00	GBP	Halifax House Price Index (MoM)	-0.4%	0.3%	-0.7%
	10:00	EUR	GDP (QoQ)	-0.2%	-0.2%	-0.2%
	11:00	EUR	German Factory Orders (MoM)	0.5%	0.2%	-1.6%
	12:00	GBP	Interest Rate Decision	0.50%	0.50%	0.50%
	12:00	GBP	BOE QE Total	375B	375B	375B
	12:45	EUR	Interest Rate Decision	0.75%	0.75%	0.75%
	13:15	USD	ADP Nonfarm Employment Change	201K	140K	173K
	13:30	USD	Initial Jobless Claims	365K	370K	377K
	13:30	USD	Continuing Jobless Claims	3322K	3315K	3328K
	15:00	USD	ISM Non-Manufacturing Index	53.7	52.5	52.6
Sep. 07	06:45	CHF	Unemployment Rate	2.9%	2.9%	2.9%
	09:30	GBP	Industrial Production (MoM)	2.9%	1.5%	-2.4%
	09:30	GBP	Manufacturing Production (MoM)	3.2%	2.0%	-2.9%
	09:30	GBP	PPI Input (MoM)	2.0%	1.7%	0.4%
	09:30	GBP	PPI Input (YoY)	1.4%	1.2%	-2.4%
	09:30	GBP	Industrial Production (YoY)	-0.8%	-2.8%	-3.8%
	11:00	EUR	German Industrial Production (MoM)	1.3%	0.2%	-0.4%
	13:30	USD	Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)	0.0%	0.2%	0.1%
	13:30	USD	Nonfarm Payrolls	96K	125K	141K
	13:30	USD	Unemployment Rate	8.1%	8.3%	8.3%
	13:30	USD	Average Weekly Hours	34.4	34.5	34.4
	13:30	USD	Private Nonfarm Payrolls	103K	138K	162K
	15:00	GBP	NIESR GDP Estimate	0.2%		0.3%

Historical: From 2010 to Present

Highest: 0.9150 EUR on March 01, 2010.

Average: 1.1548 EUR over this period.

Lowest: 0.7758 EUR on July 22, 2012

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Sep. 11	00:01	GBP	RICS House Price Balance	-22%	-24%
	09:30	GBP	Trade Balance	-9.0B	-10.1B
	13:30	USD	Trade Balance	-44.2B	-42.9B
Sep. 12	06:30	EUR	French CPI (MoM)		-0.4%
	07:00	EUR	German CPI (MoM)	0.3%	0.3%
	07:00	EUR	German CPI (YoY)	2.0%	2.0%
	09:30	GBP	Average Earnings Index +Bonus	1.6%	1.6%
	09:30	GBP	Claimant Count Change	0.5K	-5.9K
	10:00	EUR	Industrial Production (MoM)	-0.1%	-0.6%
	13:30	USD	Import Price Index (MoM)	1.3%	-0.6%
Sep. 13	08:15	CHF	PPI (MoM)	-0.4%	-0.3%
Sep. 14	10:00	EUR	CPI (YoY)	2.6%	2.6%
	10:00	EUR	Employment Change (QoQ)		-0.2%
	10:00	EUR	Core CPI (YoY)		1.7%