EUR/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis December 23 – 27, 2013 Forecast

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Updated: Aug 22, 2015, 19:00 GMT+00:00

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation: The EUR/USD ended the week down after touching a low of 1.3625 the pair ended at 1.3697. Earlier in the week the pair

EUR/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis December 23 – 27, 2013 Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The EUR/USD ended the week down after touching a low of 1.3625 the pair ended at 1.3697. Earlier in the week the pair broke above the 1.38 price to top out at 1.3812. On Friday S&P lowered the eurozone credit rating taking away its AAA status. The euro gained against the greenback even after Standard & Poor’s cut the European Union’s long-term rating to AA+ with a stable outlook. The region’s financial profile has deteriorated and “cohesion” among the member states has lessened, the rating company said.

“It seems to have been a short-term negative for the euro,” said Cullum Henderson, global head of currency research at Standard Chartered Plc in Singapore. “That said, the times when ratings downgrades had a lasting impact on foreign-exchange rates seem to be a thing of the past.”

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said Dec. 16 that there are risks from long periods of low inflation and policy makers have tools to address this, including “several other instruments on the liquidity front.”

Date	Last	Open	High	Low	Change %
Dec 20, 2013	1.3697	1.3656	1.3709	1.3625	0.30%
Dec 19, 2013	1.3656	1.3682	1.3694	1.3650	-0.19%
Dec 18, 2013	1.3682	1.3769	1.3812	1.3668	-0.63%
Dec 17, 2013	1.3769	1.3761	1.3782	1.3723	0.06%
Dec 16, 2013	1.3761	1.3738	1.3798	1.3738	0.17%

U.S. gross domestic product rose at a 4.1 percent annual rate in the third quarter, the fastest pace since the final three months of 2011, according to a Commerce Department report today. Data due Dec. 23 will show personal income and spending both increased in November, Bloomberg surveys show.

The Fed said after its Dec. 17-18 meeting that it would trim monthly asset purchases to $75 billion from $85 billion. At the same time it reinforced an assurance that interest-rate increases are far off by saying the benchmark rate is likely to stay low “well past the time that the unemployment rate declines below 6.5 percent.”

The central bank has kept the target for the federal-funds rate at a range of zero to 0.25 percent since December 2008.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Historical: From 2011 to Present

Highest: 1.4577USD on Jul 03, 2011

Average: 1.3165USD over this period.

Lowest: 1.2041USD on Jul 24, 2012

Major Economic Events for the week of December 16-20 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Dec. 16	01:45	CNY	Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI	50.5	51.0	50.8
	07:58	EUR	French Manufacturing PMI	47.1	49.1	48.4
	07:58	EUR	French Services PMI	47.4	49.0	48.0
	08:28	EUR	German Manufacturing PMI	54.2	53.0	52.7
	08:28	EUR	German Services PMI	54.0	55.5	55.7
	08:58	EUR	Manufacturing PMI	52.7	51.9	51.6
	08:58	EUR	Services PMI	51.0	51.5	51.2
	13:30	USD	Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ)	3.0%	2.8%	1.9%
	13:30	USD	Unit Labor Costs (QoQ)	-1.4%	-1.3%	-0.6%
	13:30	USD	NY Empire State Manufacturing Index	0.98	4.75	-2.21
	14:00	USD	TIC Net Long-Term Transactions	35.4B	31.4B	31.3B
	14:15	USD	Industrial Production (MoM)	1.1%	0.5%	0.1%
Dec. 17	09:30	GBP	CPI (YoY)	2.1%	2.2%	2.2%
	09:30	GBP	PPI Input (MoM)	-0.7%	-0.5%	-0.4%
	09:30	GBP	CPI (MoM)	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
	10:00	EUR	CPI (YoY)	0.9%	0.9%	0.9%
	10:00	EUR	German ZEW Economic Sentiment	62.0	55.0	54.6
	10:00	EUR	ZEW Economic Sentiment	68.3	60.9	60.2
	10:00	EUR	Core CPI (YoY)	0.9%	0.9%	0.8%
	10:00	EUR	CPI (MoM)	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
	10:00	EUR	German ZEW Current Conditions	32.4	30.0	28.7
	11:00	GBP	CBI Industrial Trends Orders	12	11	11
	13:30	USD	Core CPI (MoM)	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%
	13:30	USD	CPI (MoM)	0.0%	0.1%	-0.1%
	13:30	USD	Current Account	-94.8B	-100.0B	-96.6B
	13:30	USD	CPI (YoY)	1.2%	1.3%	1.0%
	13:30	USD	Core CPI (YoY)	1.7%	1.7%	1.7%
Dec. 18	09:00	EUR	German Ifo Business Climate Index	109.5	109.5	109.3
	09:00	EUR	German Current Assessment	111.6	112.5	112.2
	09:00	EUR	German Business Expectations	107.4	106.5	106.4
	09:30	GBP	Average Earnings Index +Bonus	0.9%	0.8%	0.8%
	09:30	GBP	Claimant Count Change	-36.7K	-35.0K	-42.8K
	09:30	GBP	Unemployment Rate	7.4%	7.6%	7.6%
	11:00	GBP	CBI Distributive Trades Survey	34	10	1
	13:30	USD	Building Permits	1.007M	0.990M	1.039M
	13:30	USD	Housing Starts	1.091M	0.950M	0.890M
	13:30	USD	Building Permits (MoM)	-3.1%	-4.7%	6.7%
	13:30	USD	Housing Starts (MoM)	22.7%		1.8%
	19:00	USD	Interest Rate Decision	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%
Dec. 19	09:30	GBP	Retail Sales (MoM)	0.3%	0.3%	-0.9%
	09:30	GBP	Retail Sales (YoY)	2.0%	2.3%	1.8%
	09:30	GBP	Core Retail Sales (MoM)	0.4%	0.3%	-0.7%
	09:30	GBP	Core Retail Sales (YoY)	2.3%	2.5%	2.3%
	09:45	EUR	Spanish 10-Year Obligacion Auction	4.098%		4.164%
	13:30	USD	Initial Jobless Claims	379K	334K	369K
	15:00	USD	Existing Home Sales	4.90M	5.03M	5.12M
	15:00	USD	Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index	7.0	10.0	6.5
	15:00	USD	Existing Home Sales (MoM)	-4.3%	-1.5%	-3.2%
Dec. 20	07:00	EUR	German PPI (MoM)	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.2%
	07:00	EUR	GfK German Consumer Climate	7.6	7.4	7.4
	09:30	GBP	Business Investment (QoQ)	2.0%	1.6%	1.4%
	09:30	GBP	Current Account	-20.7B	-13.8B	-6.2B
	09:30	GBP	GDP (QoQ)	0.8%	0.8%	0.8%
	09:30	GBP	GDP (YoY)	1.9%	1.5%	1.5%
	13:30	USD	GDP Price Index (QoQ)	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%
	13:30	USD	GDP (QoQ)	4.1%	3.6%	3.6%
	13:30	USD	Real Consumer Spending	2.0%	1.4%	1.4%

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Dec. 23	13:30	USD	Core PCE Price Index (MoM)	0.1%	0.1%
	13:30	USD	Personal Spending (MoM)	0.5%	0.3%
	14:55	USD	Michigan Consumer Sentiment	82.8	82.5
Dec. 24	07:45	EUR	French Consumer Spending (MoM)	0.4%	-0.2%
	07:45	EUR	French GDP (QoQ)	-0.1%	-0.1%
	13:30	USD	Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM)	0.7%	0.4%
	13:30	USD	Durable Goods Orders (MoM)	1.7%	-1.6%
	15:00	USD	New Home Sales	445K	444K
	15:00	USD	New Home Sales (MoM)		25.4%