Forex Monthly Outlook – April 2018

The pound spent much of the month of March in a consolidation mode and ranged between the 1.37 and the 1.40 regions for much of the time. It is only towards the end of the month that the pound got boost and it managed to surmount the region around 1.40 and it also managed to close the month above the same. This should have given a lot of energy and confidence for the bulls for the month ahead and this region is also likely to be the region of battle between the bulls and the bears in the short term.

GBPUSD Breaks Higher

There has been a smooth progress in the Brexit process so far and with less than a year for the process to complete and the incoming data also continuing to look strong for most of the period, the investors have been gaining in confidence and this has helped to keep the GBPUSD pair buoyed. The dollar has also not been able to generate any sort of bullish momentum due to the geopolitical issues and this has placed the dollar under pressure.

Looking ahead to the month of April, the first part of the month is likely to be spent as a battleground between the bulls and the bears for control. If the pound manages to stay above 1.40, then we should see the bulls in control and this should help the pair to move towards the highs of its range while a drop below that region would mean that the pair is back in range and it could lead to some more period of ranging and consolidation.

USDJPY Likely to Remain Weak

The USDJPY pair has been unable to generate any sort of a momentum over the last month or so and continues to trade near the lows of the range. With the break below the strong support regions of 110 and 108, the pair has lost a lot of support and the yen has been growing in strength since then. The bulls have been unable to generate any sort of momentum and this was the story for a large part of the previous month as the bulls struggle to push the pair higher. The weakness in the dollar has also not helped matters in any manner.

In the upcoming month of April, we expect the weakness in the pair to continue. The dollar is on the backfoot, not due to any specific fundamentals, but due to the decisions of the US government to adopt a nationalistic policy and this is likely to begin biting the dollar in the medium term. That is why we believe that the pair would remain weak due to the weakness in the dollar. Alsso, the break below the 110 and the 108 regions were crucial for the pair and hence it is unlikely that the bulls would be able to surmount the selling in these regions if and when the prices come there and hence the bears are likely to continue to be in control.

AUDUSD Expected to be Bullish

The AUDUSD pair spend much of the last month weakening as the pair has been unable to generate any sort or momentum. It has been generally noticed that the Aussie tends to be related to the prices of the various commodities like iron and gold a lot and hence with those commodities also being weak in general, it is only natural to expect the pair to be weak as well. But now the pair is in a strong support region and with the dollar also expected to be in the backfoot for the short term, we should see the pair begin to move up in a slow and steady manner.

In the coming month of April, we believe that the pair should be able to undertake a bullish leg for a variety of reasons. The commodity market is likely to get stronger and at the same time, it is expected that the dollar would turn weaker as well, this has been put down to seasonals. For these reasons and for the fact that the pair is in a strong support region, we believe that the AUDUSD pair should have a bullish month ahead.