GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound Pulls Back From 50-Day EMA

GBP/USD Forecast Video for 01.09.23

British Pound vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The British pound has pulled back just a bit during the trading session on Thursday, as the 50-Day EMA has shown itself to be resistance, and therefore it’s likely that we are trying to see whether or not we can get any follow-through whatsoever heading into the jobs number. Keep in mind that the British pound has been consolidating for a while, so I think at this point it’s likely that the noise continues. However, it’s not until we break above the 1.28 level that I would be convinced of a real breakout. At that point, I anticipate that the market is looking to the 1.30 level.

Underneath, the market breaking down below the 1.2650 level opens up the possibility of a move to the 1.25 level. The 200-Day EMA sits below there and is rising, and it does suggest that we are going to continue to see a lot of buying pressure underneath. We also have a nice uptrend line in the area, so we need to get through all that to get negative. Whether or not we break to the upside comes down to a lot of moving pieces, and of course we have the jobs number coming out on Friday which will have a major influence on the US dollar.

Ultimately, I think the only thing you can count on is that we are going to bounce back and forth so if you are short-term trader, you probably like this pair for a bounce around. That being said, we have been in a longer-term uptrend for quite some time, and therefore I think that given enough time we could retest the high levels, but I think it takes a lot of effort to make that happen. I think more than not, we are going to look at this through the prism of whether or not we can find a reason to get negative on either of these currencies as both of the central banks are extraordinarily tight. With this, I think this is a situation where we continue to see a lot of volatility to keep your position size reasonable.

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