GBP/USD Forecast – British Pound Rallies During Thin US Trading

GBP/USD Forecast Video for 24.11.23

British Pound vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The British pound has rallied significantly during the trading session on Thursday, as it looks like we continue to see a lot of upward pressure. That being said, we also see a lot of downward pressure just above near the 1.26 level, I think at this point in time we are simply trying to sort out where we are going for a longer-term move. All things being equal, the market is likely to continue to see a lot of noisy behavior, and the fact that Thursday was Thanksgiving also may have played a part in the fact that Americans were on board. At this point, it’s probably worth noting that Friday will probably be the same way in the United States, as most Americans take the Friday of the week of Thanksgiving off as well.

Underneath, we have the previous top of the channel that we had been in, and that could offer a significant amount of support. Underneath there, we have the 200-Day EMA which already has proven itself. In other words, I think a dip could bring in buyers but if we were to break down below the 1.2350 level, things could start changing again.

From the bearish case, it’s worth noting that we are struggling with the 50% Fibonacci level, so that could come into play as well. In the short term, I believe that the market will probably continue go back and forth in this area, as we are waiting for some type of driver to move the markets. Perhaps the driver happens next Friday during the jobs report in the United States, but right now people are trying to bet that the Federal Reserve is going to either loosen monetary policy, or do nothing to keep it tight for any significant amount of time.

In fact, some pundits are already talking about the Federal Reserve cutting rates sometime during 2024, which of course remains to be seen. Inflation rates in the United States will continue to be the biggest mover of all things in the markets, not just the GBP/USD pair. With this, position sizing will be crucial but perhaps an eye on short-term charts might be in your best interest.

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