GBP/USD Weekly Forecast – British Pound Falls for the Week

GBP to USD Forecast Video for 11.09.23

British Pound vs US Dollar Weekly Technical Analysis

The British pound has initially tried to rally a bit during the course of the trading week, reaching the 1.2650 level before turning around. At this point, the market then fell to the 50-Week EMA, which of course is an indicator that some people will pay attention to. If we were to break down below there, the 1.2350 level underneath will be supported, as it has shown signs of support in the past. Furthermore, it has also offered a bit of resistance previously.

If the market were to turn around and take out the 1.2650 level to the upside, it’s very likely that the market goes looking to the 200-Week EMA, perhaps even further to the 1.30 level. That being said, money has flown back into the market as traders came back from the summer break, and now we are starting to see that the US dollar is flexing its muscles.

All things being equal, I think you would see a lot of noisy behavior in both directions, and I think at this point we have a lot of consolidation and of course a lot of questions asked about the monetary policy coming out of the United States and the United Kingdom. I expect a lot of choppy behavior, but it’s probably worth noting that the British pound has been one of the better performers against the greenback all year, so even if we see the market turn things around, showing the British pound falling drastically, the reality is that it has outperformed most other currencies against the greenback.

Ultimately, this is a market that I think continues to see a lot of volatility, and I do think that the US dollar is probably going to strengthen a bit, and therefore I think we’ve got a situation where the pair will more likely than not continue to see downward pressure but I don’t necessarily think that it’s going to be terminal.

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