The British pound initially tried to rally, but we have seen quite a bit of bad news coming out of the United Kingdom for the currency, so it should be no surprise that we ended up forming an inverted hammer for the week.
The British pound initially tried to rally during the course of the week, but as you can see we have turned around to break below the 1.34 handle. The market looks as if it is primed to go much lower, which makes quite a bit of sense considering that the Bank of England has decided not to taper, which was a sign of weakness. After that, we ended up getting a GDP number out of the United Kingdom that was below pre-pandemic numbers, suggesting that the United Kingdom is going to continue to struggle going forward. Because of this, the pound was sold off against most currencies.
On the other side of the equation, we have the US dollar. The US dollar of course is being driven by interest rates in America as the Federal Reserve is looking to taper bond purchases. If that remains true, then should continue to drive this pair longer term, and to the downside. At this point, it is not until we smash through the top of the inverted hammer that I would consider buying this pair, and quite frankly on a higher timeframe I would rather see it break above the 1.39 handle.
As long as there are concerns about interest rates rising in America, I just do not see how this pair rallies for any significant amount of time. This does not mean that we cannot get a little bit of a bounce, but more likely than not it should attract quite a bit of selling pressure going forward.
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Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.