The British pound initially tried to rally during the week but collapsed and now is more likely than not going to go looking to the 1.20 level.
The British pound initially tried to rally during the trading week, but then fell apart as it looks like we are going to continue to see a massive move lower. At this point, it should be obvious that you are fading any rally that happens, and the market breaking the way it has does suggest that perhaps we are going all the way down to the 1.20 level. I would expect some type of recovery, but that recovery will almost certainly get sold into.
I believe that the 1.25 level could offer significant resistance, so any bounce at this point in time will offer an opportunity to short this market, especially if we get in that area. I would probably drill down to a smaller timeframe in order to take advantage of the trend but keep an eye on the weekly chart. There should be no doubt as to the overall trend of the market, so at this point, you are waiting to pick up “cheap US dollars.” We could simply drop from here, but it is a situation where you do not want to change how you look at the market, and you certainly do not want to suffer at the hands of “FOMO.”
The market has formed four very negative candlesticks in a row, so at this point, we are most certainly oversold. The markets will continue to see a lot of noise, but bear markets do tend to have “rip your face off rallies” occasionally, so you need to pay close attention to that. Do not think that the market has suddenly changed, just that it is offering you a bit of value on these rallies.
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Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.