GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis, June 04, 2015 – Forecast

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Updated: Jun 21, 2015, 08:31 GMT+00:00

Analysis and Recommendations: The GBP/USD continued to decline after housing data missed expectations. The pound fell by 75 points to 1.5270. Services PMI

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis, June 04, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD continued to decline after housing data missed expectations. The pound fell by 75 points to 1.5270. Services PMI also dipped today while yesterday Construction PMI soared above forecast. Sterling sank by a full cent against the dollar on Wednesday after a survey of UK services sector purchasing managers index came in sharply below forecasts.

The slowdown from April was the fastest in nearly four years and, combined with a weak manufacturing survey and a bounce in construction, showed growth across the three sectors in May was the slowest since December.

The monthly drop was the biggest since August 2011 and the reading undercut the lowest forecast in a Reuter’s poll of economists, though the index did show signs that rock-bottom inflation could pick up.

Along with a weak manufacturing figure and a bounce in construction, combined growth across the three sectors in May was the slowest since December and the second-weakest for two years, Markit said.

Data from mortgage lender Nationwide earlier on Wednesday showed the annual rate of house price growth fell to its lowest in nearly two years.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
AUD	GDP (QoQ) (Q1)	0.9%	0.7%	0.5%
AUD	GDP (YoY) (Q1)	2.3%	2.1%	2.5%
CNY	HSBC Services PMI (May)	53.5	53.3	52.9
GBP	Nationwide HPI (MoM) (May)	0.3%	0.3%	1.0%
GBP	Nationwide HPI (YoY) (May)	4.6%	4.7%	5.2%
RUB	HSBC Services PMI (May)	52.8	48.0	50.7
EUR	Spanish Services PMI (May)	58.4	59.3	60.3
EUR	German Services PMI (May)	53.0	52.9	52.9
EUR	Markit Composite PMI (May)	53.6	53.4	53.4
EUR	Services PMI (May)	53.8	53.3	53.3
GBP	Services PMI (May)	56.5	59.2	59.5
EUR	Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)	0.7%	0.7%	-0.6%
EUR	Unemployment Rate (Apr)	11.1%	11.2%	11.2%
EUR	Interest Rate Decision (Jun)	0.05%	0.05%	0.05%
USD	ADP Nonfarm Employment	201K	200K	165K
USD	Trade Balance (Apr)	-40.88B	-44.00B	-50.57B
CAD	Trade Balance (Apr)	-2.97B	-2.10B	-3.85B
EUR	ECB Press Conference

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Thursday, June 04, 2015

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
JPY	BoJ Governor Kuroda Speaks
AUD	Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)		0.4%	0.3%
AUD	Trade Balance (Apr)		-2.250B	-1.322B
GBP	BoE QE Total (Jun)		375B	375B
GBP	Interest Rate Decision (Jun)		0.50%	0.50%
RUB	CPI (MoM)		0.4%	0.5%
RUB	CPI (YoY)		15.9%	16.4%
RUB	Central Bank reserves (USD)			360.5B
USD	Initial Jobless Claims		279K	282K
USD	Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ)		-2.9%	-1.9%
USD	Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q1)		5.9%	5.0%
CAD	Ivey PMI (May)		55.5	58.2

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Jun 04 11:10 France Eur 8-9bn 1.75% May 2023

Jun 04 11:30 UK Gbp 750mn 4.25% 2055 mini-Gilt tender

Jun 08 12:00 Norway Details bond auction on 10 Jun

Jun 08 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTP/CCTeu on 11 June

Jun 09 11:10 Austria Holds RAGB bond sale

Jun 09 11:30 UK Auctions 0.125% 2024 I/L Gilt

Jun 10 11:15 Norway Holds bond auction

Jun 10 11:30 Germany Eur 5bn Jun 2017 Schatz

Jun 10 16:30 Sweden Details bond auction on 17 June

Jun 11 11:30 Spain Auctions Bonos

Jun 11 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

Jun 11 11:10 Sweden Holds inflation-linked bond auction

Jun 11 11:30 UK Auctions 3.5% 2045 Conventional Gilt

Jun 11 17:00 US Announces details of 30-year TIPs sale on 18 Jun

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