GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis November 2, 2012, Forecast

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Updated: Aug 20, 2015, 21:00 GMT+00:00

Analysis and Recommendations: The GBP/USD continued to climb today on positive eco data trading at 1.6146, with the Nationwide HPI reporting well above

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis November 2, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD continued to climb today on positive eco data trading at 1.6146, with the Nationwide HPI reporting well above forecast and manufacturing PMI printing at 47.5 against a forecast of 48.1, the pound was still able to keep its momentum. The rise in the pound is supported by comments from Chancellor Osborne that the UK supports EU budget cuts. The GBP-supportive outlook for monetary policy has been reinforced by yesterday’s speech from MPC member Bean, in which he echoed many of BoE Gov. King’s recent comments on the limited ability for QE to drive economic growth, suggesting that it is better viewed as a tool to ease the pain of structural adjustment. Bean also threw more cold water on the idea of cancelling gilts acquired via QE and indicated a preference for macro-prudential measures to ensure long-term financial stability.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data November 1, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date	Currency	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Nov. 01	CNY	Chinese Manufacturing PMI	50.20	50.30	49.80
	CNY	Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI	49.50	49.10	49.10
	GBP	Nationwide HPI (MoM)	0.6%	0.2%	-0.4%
	DKK	Danish Unemployment Rate	4.80%	4.70%	4.70%
	CHF	Retail Sales (YoY)	5.4%	4.2%	6.0%
	CHF	SVME PMI	46.1	44.5	43.6
	GBP	Manufacturing PMI	47.5	48.1	48.1
	BRL	Brazilian Industrial Production (YoY)	-3.8%	-3.4%	-2.0%
	USD	ADP Nonfarm Employment Change	158K	135K	114K
	USD	Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ)	1.9%	1.6%	1.9%
	USD	Initial Jobless Claims	363K	370K	372K
	USD	Unit Labor Costs (QoQ)	-0.1%	1.0%	1.7%
	USD	Continuing Jobless Claims	3263K	3250K	3259K
	USD	CB Consumer Confidence	72.2	72.5	68.4
	USD	ISM Manufacturing Index	51.7	51.2	51.5

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Nov. 02	08:45	EUR	Italian Manufacturing PMI	45.90	45.70
	08:50	EUR	French Manufacturing PMI	43.5	43.5
	08:55	EUR	German Manufacturing PMI	45.7	45.7
	09:00	EUR	Manufacturing PMI	45.3	45.3
	12:30	USD	Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)	0.2%	0.3%
	12:30	USD	Nonfarm Payrolls	125K	114K
	12:30	USD	Average Weekly Hours	34.5	34.5
	12:30	USD	Private Nonfarm Payrolls	120K	104K