GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis September 17, 2014 Forecast

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Updated: Aug 24, 2015, 18:00 GMT+00:00

Analysis and Recommendations: The GBP/USD eased by 42 points as traders continue to worry about Scottish independence as well as weak PPI data which

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis September 17, 2014 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD eased by 42 points as traders continue to worry about Scottish independence as well as weak PPI data which missed expectations. It’s a busy week ahead with a raft of releases and interest rate decisions in the U.S. and Switzerland. Aside from the Fed Policy Meeting on Wednesday, there is plenty of other event risk this week that could affect the direction of the GBP/USD pair, with the UK CPI figures on Tuesday, BoE Minutes and ILO Unemployment Rate on Wednesday as well as the UK Retail Sales and the Scottish Independence Referendum on Thursday. Sterling fell towards recent lows on Tuesday, keeping the cost of hedging against sharp swings over the next week at its highest in four years, as Scotland’s vote on independence approaches.

Using sterling unilaterally while not accepting its share of the UK’s debt would condemn a newly independent Scotland to “unprecedented austerity”, according to a new paper from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research.

Alex Salmond, leader of the Yes campaign, has repeatedly threatened that Scotland could walk away from its share of the UK’s public debt if Westminster refuses his request for monetary union. He has stressed that there is nothing to prevent Scotland continuing to use the pound informally, a policy known as “sterlingisation”

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
AUD	Monetary Policy Minutes
JPY	BoJ Governor Kuroda
GBP	CPI (MoM)	0.4%	0.4%	-0.3%
GBP	PPI Input (MoM)	-0.6%	-0.4%	-1.7%
CAD	Manufacturing Sales (MoM)		1.0%	0.6%
USD	PPI (MoM)		0.1%	0.1%

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
NZD	Current Account (QoQ)		-0.95B	1.41B
GBP	Average Earnings Index		0.5%	-0.2%
GBP	BoE MPC vote cut		0	0
GBP	Claimant Count Change		-30.0K	-33.6K
GBP	Unemployment Rate		6.3%	6.4%
EUR	CPI (MoM)		0.1%	-0.7%
USD	Core CPI (MoM)		0.2%	0.1%
USD	CPI (MoM)		0.1%	0.1%
USD	FOMC Statement
USD	Fed Chair Yellen