Geopolitic Tensions Are Likely To Increase In 2024. What Should Investors Be Careful Of?

Half the world’s population is indeed expected to vote in over 50 countries. These elections have the potential to escalate geopolitical tensions globally, possibly resulting in trade tensions or restrictions, as well as economic divergences.

According to the latest IMF “World Economic Outlook” report published in October 2024, global growth is still in a slow recovery mode with “growing regional divergences”. While emerging markets and developing economies are expected to face a “modest decline” in growth, advanced economies are likely to register a larger economic slowdown in 2024 compared to the two previous years, as shown in the following chart.

The IMF expects, for instance, the real GDP growth of the United States to reach 1.5% in 2024 compared to 2.1% in 2023 and 2022, the real GDP growth of the Euro Area to reach 1.2% in 2024, after 0.7% in 2023 and 3.3% in 2022, the real GDP growth of China to reach 4.2% in 2024, after 5% in 2023 and 3% in 2022, the real GDP growth of Latin America and the Caribbean to reach 2.3% in 2024, after 2.3% in 2023 and 4.1% in 2022, and the real GDP growth of Emerging Market and Middle-Income Economies to reach 3.9% in 2024, after 4% in 2023 and in 2022.

Given that geopolitical volatility has been identified as the primary risk in the current year by the World Economic Forum, investors should remain vigilant about the numerous major elections scheduled for 2024, as it will help them better protect their portfolios and adapt to changing market conditions to capitalize on emerging opportunities.

Tensions Between China And Taiwan Are Likely To Intensify

William Lai secured victory in the Taiwanese presidential election on Saturday, January 13, 2024. Despite his impending inauguration on May 20th, steering his agenda may prove challenging due to a divided parliament without any one party holding a majority.

As Lai prepares for his inauguration, market participants are closely monitoring the level of support he can gather for his policies amid the fragmented parliamentary composition. Additionally, attention is focused on the tone and content of Lai’s inaugural speech, particularly concerning the issue of independence.

The explicitness with which he advocates for or addresses pro-independence sentiments may not only impact cross-strait relations with China but also potentially influence global perceptions. Given the economic interdependence of Taiwan and China, any tensions or policy adjustments could send ripples through international markets. Consequently, China’s response is under close scrutiny for potential repercussions on global trade dynamics.

Narendra Modi Could Shape India’s Future Thanks to a Third Term in Power

Over the course of several weeks, from April to May 2024, India’s general elections are poised to maintain the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in power, with the current Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, at the helm.

The anticipation is grounded in the outcomes of major state elections held in November and December 2023, indicating a likelihood that the majority of parliamentary representatives will be affiliated with the BJP such as the key states like Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan – and the prime minister is usually the leader of the party with the most seats in the parliament.

If Modi secures re-election, it would mean his third consecutive term, further extending his tenure for an additional five years. Still, the results of state elections to form the lower house should not be taken as the outcome of what will happen in 2024.

Mexico Will Elect First Female President

In a historic milestone for the country, the two major political parties in Mexico have chosen female candidates for the forthcoming presidential election set to take place on June 2nd, 2024. Additionally, voters will play a crucial role in determining the composition of the chambers of Congress and electing various governors, state legislators, and mayors.

Even though other candidates will appear in the ballots, the next leader of the country will be a woman for the first time in history – either Claudia Sheinbaum, the former Mayor of Mexico City, or the tech entrepreneur, Xóchitl Gálvez Ruiz.

Other Important Elections To Keep An Eye On

Numerous other elections worldwide could potentially exert significant influence on trade relations and regional growth.

In South Africa, the current President, Cyril Ramaphosa, is seeking a second term, although polls indicate the potential for the ruling party to lose its majority. Similar dynamics could unfold in other African nations like Algeria, Madagascar, and Tunisia, where parliamentary majorities may shrink in the upcoming 2024 elections. Other African countries heading to the polls this year include Mali, Senegal, Burkina Faso, Ghana, Chad, South Sudan, Ethiopia, Mozambique, and Namibia.

The unfolding situations in China and Russia are likely to impact Africa’s economy. Vladimir Putin, who has held leadership in Russia for 23 years, is anticipated to run for another six years in this year’s election, courtesy of a 2021 law that theoretically allows him to remain in power until 2036.

From June 6th to 9th, the European Parliament will witness the election of 720 members. On November 5th, the 60th President of the United States is expected to emerge, with the race likely to involve either Trump or Biden once again.

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