Gold Breaks $3,250 on Tariff Fears; Silver Awaits Breakout at $32.50

Gold (XAU) surged above $3,250 on Wednesday as safe-haven demand increased. This sharp rally came amid renewed US-China trade tensions. President Trump’s threat to impose pharmaceutical tariffs and China’s ban on Boeing deliveries shook investor confidence. As risk sentiment deteriorated, traders shifted capital into gold and silver (XAG) to protect value. Despite gold’s strong rally, silver’s performance appears less attractive due to concerns over weaker international industrial demand caused by high tariffs.

On the other hand, the US 10-year Treasury yield continues to fluctuate within wide ranges. The yield dropped to 4.33%, further adding momentum to gold prices, as lower yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, making them more attractive. The escalating uncertainty from the tariffs has supported the bullish outlook for gold and silver.

The chart below shows that the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index improved to -8.1 from -20. Despite this increase, the overall outlook remains weak. Rising prices and a deteriorating six-month forecast reflect deeper inflation concerns. The market now awaits retail sales data for March, which is expected to rise to 1.3%. These mixed signals amplify recession fears, supporting safe-haven buying in precious metals.

The market is also awaiting Powell’s speech. With 85 bps of rate cuts priced in by year-end and the first cut expected in July, gold and silver may continue to benefit. However, the short-term outlook remains driven by uncertainty from the US-China trade war.

Gold (XAU) Technical Analysis

Gold Daily Chart – Parabolic Surge

The daily chart for gold shows that the price has broken above $3,250 after two days of consolidation, further confirming the bullish case. The breakout has triggered short-term bullish momentum toward the $3,300–$3,350 region. The previous resistance at $3,250 has now become support, and prices remain in surge mode.

Gold 4-Hour Chart – Ascending Channel Breakout

The 4-hour chart for gold shows that the price has broken out of the ascending channel and entered the next phase of the bullish run. Following the breakout, the price was consolidated briefly, and then support was found to initiate the next upward rally. As a result, the trend remains upward, targeting the $3,300 to $3,350 region.

Silver (XAG) Technical Analysis

Silver Daily Chart – Resistance of 50-Day SMA

The daily chart for silver shows that the price rebounded from the pivotal support at $27–$27.50 and reached the 50-day SMA at $32.50. A break above this level will indicate further upside momentum in the silver market. The RSI has reached the mid-level as the price touched the 50-day SMA, highlighting a strong key area for silver.

Silver 4-Hour Chart – Positive Development

The 4-hour chart for silver shows that the rebound came from the target area of the ascending broadening wedge pattern. Since then, this rebound has approached the resistance at $32.50, aligning with the resistance on the daily chart. If this level breaks, a new upward trend in silver will likely initiate.

US Dollar (DXY) Technical Analysis

US Dollar Daily – Bearish Pressure

The daily chart for the US Dollar Index shows that it has broken below the key level of 100.65 and remains under bearish pressure. As a result, the decline in the index continues to support bullish momentum in gold. The next target for this downward move is the 96 to 97 area.

US Dollar 4-Hour Chart – Descending Channel

The 4-hour chart for the US Dollar Index shows that the index is currently consolidating near the descending channel’s support. However, it failed to initiate a rebound from this level, highlighting that the index remains under strong bearish pressure. Consequently, the following support zone for this drop lies in the 96 to 97 area.