Gold edged higher on Thursday, continuing its climb above the 50-day moving average of $2,650.27. Bullish momentum is targeting the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $2,663.51, which could set the stage for a challenge of the 61.8% retracement at $2,693.40. A successful breach of this level could trigger a rally toward the main top at $2,726.30, with the record high of $2,790.17 becoming a potential target.
However, if gold prices fail to sustain a move above $2,663.51, a pullback to the 50-day moving average could shift momentum downward, signaling caution for traders.
At 11:56 GMT, XAU/USD is trading $2671.16, up $9.50 or +0.36%.
Gold remains supported near a four-week peak as safe-haven demand counters headwinds from a stronger U.S. dollar and elevated Treasury yields. Investors are closely monitoring geopolitical and economic uncertainties, particularly President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs, which could spark inflationary pressures and boost gold’s appeal as an inflation hedge.
The dollar index traded near a one-week high, limiting gold’s allure for non-dollar holders, while the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to its highest level since April at 4.73%. Such conditions could weigh on gold’s upward momentum unless safe-haven demand intensifies.
The Federal Reserve’s December meeting minutes revealed concerns about persistent inflation, complicating expectations for rate cuts in 2025. While markets anticipate only two quarter-point rate cuts this year, ongoing quantitative tightening and trade policy uncertainties may impact the Fed’s approach.
Eyes are now on Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, with economists forecasting a 160,000-job increase for December. A weaker-than-expected print could reduce rate hike fears, providing support for gold.
Gold prices are operating in a complex environment influenced by inflation risks, monetary policy, and geopolitical uncertainty. While safe-haven demand and technical momentum are providing a near-term bullish case, a stronger dollar and higher yields could temper gains.
For traders, a sustained move above $2,663.51 may signal further upside potential, targeting $2,693.40 and beyond. Conversely, failure to hold this level could lead to a bearish reversal toward $2,650. Traders should remain alert to Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, as it will likely shape the near-term direction of gold prices.
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James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.