Gold edged higher on Thursday, continuing its climb above the 50-day moving average of $2,650.27. Bullish momentum is targeting the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $2,663.51, which could set the stage for a challenge of the 61.8% retracement at $2,693.40. A successful breach of this level could trigger a rally toward the main top at $2,726.30, with the record high of $2,790.17 becoming a potential target.
However, if gold prices fail to sustain a move above $2,663.51, a pullback to the 50-day moving average could shift momentum downward, signaling caution for traders.
At 11:56 GMT, XAU/USD is trading $2671.16, up $9.50 or +0.36%.
Gold remains supported near a four-week peak as safe-haven demand counters headwinds from a stronger U.S. dollar and elevated Treasury yields. Investors are closely monitoring geopolitical and economic uncertainties, particularly President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs, which could spark inflationary pressures and boost gold’s appeal as an inflation hedge.
The dollar index traded near a one-week high, limiting gold’s allure for non-dollar holders, while the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to its highest level since April at 4.73%. Such conditions could weigh on gold’s upward momentum unless safe-haven demand intensifies.
The Federal Reserve’s December meeting minutes revealed concerns about persistent inflation, complicating expectations for rate cuts in 2025. While markets anticipate only two quarter-point rate cuts this year, ongoing quantitative tightening and trade policy uncertainties may impact the Fed’s approach.
Eyes are now on Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, with economists forecasting a 160,000-job increase for December. A weaker-than-expected print could reduce rate hike fears, providing support for gold.
Gold prices are operating in a complex environment influenced by inflation risks, monetary policy, and geopolitical uncertainty. While safe-haven demand and technical momentum are providing a near-term bullish case, a stronger dollar and higher yields could temper gains.
For traders, a sustained move above $2,663.51 may signal further upside potential, targeting $2,693.40 and beyond. Conversely, failure to hold this level could lead to a bearish reversal toward $2,650. Traders should remain alert to Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, as it will likely shape the near-term direction of gold prices.
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James Hyerczyk is a U.S. based seasoned technical analyst and educator with over 40 years of experience in market analysis and trading, specializing in chart patterns and price movement. He is the author of two books on technical analysis and has a background in both futures and stock markets.