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Gold News: Traders Await Nonfarm Payrolls as Prices Hover Near $2,663 Pivot

By:
James Hyerczyk
Published: Jan 9, 2025, 12:04 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

  • Gold prices climb above $2,650, testing $2,663 pivot, with bulls eyeing $2,693 and safe-haven demand fueling momentum.
  • A breakout above $2,663 pivot could target $2,693 and $2,726, while failure to hold may trigger a drop to $2,650 support.
  • Safe-haven demand supports gold as traders monitor U.S. payrolls and inflation risks shaping the Federal Reserve’s next steps.
  • Fed’s inflation concerns and limited rate cut expectations in 2025 weigh on gold market sentiment despite bullish technicals.
  • Gold hovers near four-week highs as safe-haven flows offset pressure from a strong U.S. dollar and rising Treasury yields.
Gold Price Forecast

In this article:

Gold Prices Push Higher as Bulls Eye Key Resistance Levels

Daily Gold (XAU/USD)

Gold edged higher on Thursday, continuing its climb above the 50-day moving average of $2,650.27. Bullish momentum is targeting the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $2,663.51, which could set the stage for a challenge of the 61.8% retracement at $2,693.40. A successful breach of this level could trigger a rally toward the main top at $2,726.30, with the record high of $2,790.17 becoming a potential target.

However, if gold prices fail to sustain a move above $2,663.51, a pullback to the 50-day moving average could shift momentum downward, signaling caution for traders.

At 11:56 GMT, XAU/USD is trading $2671.16, up $9.50 or +0.36%.

Safe-Haven Demand Bolsters Gold Near Four-Week High

Gold remains supported near a four-week peak as safe-haven demand counters headwinds from a stronger U.S. dollar and elevated Treasury yields. Investors are closely monitoring geopolitical and economic uncertainties, particularly President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs, which could spark inflationary pressures and boost gold’s appeal as an inflation hedge.

The dollar index traded near a one-week high, limiting gold’s allure for non-dollar holders, while the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to its highest level since April at 4.73%. Such conditions could weigh on gold’s upward momentum unless safe-haven demand intensifies.

Fed Policy and Economic Data in Focus

The Federal Reserve’s December meeting minutes revealed concerns about persistent inflation, complicating expectations for rate cuts in 2025. While markets anticipate only two quarter-point rate cuts this year, ongoing quantitative tightening and trade policy uncertainties may impact the Fed’s approach.

Eyes are now on Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, with economists forecasting a 160,000-job increase for December. A weaker-than-expected print could reduce rate hike fears, providing support for gold.

Market Outlook: Gold Faces Mixed Signals

Gold prices are operating in a complex environment influenced by inflation risks, monetary policy, and geopolitical uncertainty. While safe-haven demand and technical momentum are providing a near-term bullish case, a stronger dollar and higher yields could temper gains.

For traders, a sustained move above $2,663.51 may signal further upside potential, targeting $2,693.40 and beyond. Conversely, failure to hold this level could lead to a bearish reversal toward $2,650. Traders should remain alert to Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, as it will likely shape the near-term direction of gold prices.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.

About the Author

James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.

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