Gold News: Trump Tariff Threats Spark Safe-Haven Demand Surge

Policy Instability and Recession Fears Drive Bullish Momentum

Gold extended its rally this week, supported by rising recession fears and strong safe-haven demand, as Trump’s aggressive trade rhetoric revives concerns over economic stability. With uncertainty mounting, investors are shifting into bullion, which recently broke out above a key resistance level, reigniting upside momentum.

At 10:05 GMT, XAU/USD is trading $3041.73, up $22.24 or +0.74%.

Trump Tariff Threats Stoke Risk-Off Sentiment

Markets are on edge following Donald Trump’s comments indicating imminent automobile tariffs and selective enforcement of broader trade policies. While full details remain unclear, the reintroduction of trade tensions is already weighing on corporate sentiment. CNBC’s CFO Council survey shows 60% of U.S. CFOs now anticipate a recession by year-end—up from just 7% last quarter—with trade policy instability named as the top external threat.

This souring outlook has led to a pullback in corporate spending, with only 35% of CFOs planning to increase capex this year. Additionally, 95% admit policy uncertainty is affecting decision-making. Equity risk appetite continues to fade, while defensive flows into gold accelerate.

Fed Signals Supportive Backdrop for Bullion

The Federal Reserve’s decision to hold rates steady last week came with dovish commentary, as policymakers acknowledged stalled progress on inflation. Fed Governor Adriana Kugler reinforced expectations for sustained monetary accommodation, setting the stage for potential rate cuts later this year. Traders are now focused on Friday’s U.S. PCE inflation data, which could further drive bullish positioning if the print comes in soft.

Breakout Above $3,028 Fuels Momentum

Gold decisively cleared the $3,028.53 pivot level this week, clearing the way for a retest of the all-time high at $3,057.59. With technical resistance breached, bulls now eye higher targets. ANZ maintains a $3,200 forecast, conditional on continued risk aversion and a dovish Fed. On the downside, former resistance at $3,028 now acts as initial support, followed by $2,999 and $2,968.

Gold Market Outlook: Bullish Bias Strengthens

As recession concerns deepen, policy risk grows, and real rates remain anchored, gold’s appeal as a store of value continues to rise. With ETF inflows climbing and physical demand steady, traders are leaning bullish.

Unless Friday’s inflation data sharply disrupts Fed rate cut expectations, the gold prices forecast remains firmly bullish, with further highs likely in the near term.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.