Gold Prediction – Gold Prices Stabilize Over Growing Nuclear Threat

• Metals and miners continue to build momentum off their recent lows, supporting our outlook for a September bottom.
• The S&P 500 is tracing out an eerily similar structure to the 2008 bear market, suggesting the worst of the bear market may still be ahead.
• The threat of nuclear weapons and rising geopolitical tension may help put a floor under precious metals.

Bear Market Analog  

Below is a chart from Jesse Felder spotlighting the current bear market in stocks compared to others. His research suggests we may be at the halfway point of a more profound decline. If correct, then stocks will likely continue their downward trajectory into the first half of 2023.

The 2008 Bear Market

Below are the benchmarks struck during the 2008 bear market. Study the chart and compare it to the current situation. The similarities are scary, in my opinion.

The 2022 Bear Market

The 2022 bear market is on a parallel course to 2008. The first three benchmarks have turned green, and we are in the process of fulfilling number 4 (blue).

I’ll be monitoring the charts closely for additional confirmation. If the analog continues with the above checklist – stocks may crater into Q1 2023, followed by even lower lows mid-year.

The Gold Cycle Indicator finished at 2 and has begun to rise. The cycle likely bottomed in September.

Gold Price Chart

Gold quickly recaptured the $1680 breakdown supporting an important low. To establish a new uptrend, prices must break decisively above the dashed downtrend line.

Silver Price Chart

I believe silver bottomed before gold at $17.40 and formed a divergent low. To support a new uptrend, prices must recapture the $22.00 region and 200-day MA.

Gold Miners Chart (GDX)

Miners held the 50-day EMA during the recent pullback supporting our outlook for an important low. Upside follow-through above $26.11 would be near-term bullish.

Bottom Line

I think gold is in the process of forming a critical bottom. I expect new highs in 2023 and a continuation into the first half of 2024. Our work supports a $2800 to $3200 target within the next 24-months.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For more charts and regular updates, please visit here.