Gold Price Forecast – Blowoff Top Nearing Completion, 20% Correction Expected

Extreme Bullish Confidence

While I remain confident that gold is on track for a substantial long-term rally—potentially exceeding $8,000 by the end of the decade—current sentiment feels excessively bullish. Social media is flooded with takes suggesting gold may never fall below $3,000 again (classic FOMO buying). This kind of extreme confidence often signals a near-term top. In my view, a pullback below $3,000 isn’t just possible, it’s highly likely.

Gold Weekly Overbought

On Thursday, April 17th, gold approached the upper boundary of its 10-week EMA envelope ($3,359), signaling a potential end to the recent blowoff phase. Notably, a similar pattern played out in 2022, when gold peaked roughly two months after the stock market began to decline—also after touching this upper boundary. A comparable peak occurred in 2020 under the same conditions.

Our Gold Cycle Indicator is at 450, reaching maximum cycle topping. This happens just once every few years and is usually followed by an average 20% decline, once the final peak is in.

Gold

The previous two cycle highs occurred roughly 115 trading days apart, drawing particular attention to April 21st; the ideal timing window for a cycle high is between April 16th and April 23rd. Consequently, prices could peak any day.

Silver

Silver has not confirmed the recent rally in gold. To extend the current gold cycle beyond April, silver would have to break decisively above $35.00 in the coming days. Otherwise, I believe the cycle peaked in March, and gold will begin to roll over in the coming days.

Platinum

Platinum peaked in February, and the gold-to-platinum ratio is nearing a record 3.50:1. I still expect prices to drop back toward long-term support near $800 in the coming months.

GDX

Miners formed a swing high after testing the upper limit of the trendline. A little more upside is possible, but if gold corrects 20% as expected, the decline in miners could be 30% or more from the final top.

GDXJ

Juniors formed a swing high. Progressive closes below Monday’s gap near $62.00 would confirm a cycle top. If gold corrects 20% as expected, the decline in juniors could be 30% or more.

SILJ

Silver juniors are poised to drop below $10.00 in the coming months unless spot silver breaks decisively above $35.00 in the coming days/weeks.

NEM

Newmont formed a swing high after closing the price gap at $57.00. A little more upside is possible, but the odds favor a top around this level.

Barrick

Barrick formed a swing high after testing the October high at $21.10. The odds favor a cycle top any day, with the gold cycle indicator maxed out at 450.

S&P 500

Stocks are rebounding after Trump backed off on his aggressive tariff policy. I believe prices are in the beginning stages of a new bear market that could last several more months. To change my view, I’d need to see a sustained breakout above the April 2nd tariff day high of 5,700. 

In Closing

I believe gold is nearing a major peak and is likely headed for a 20% correction that could unfold over the next 3 to 6 months.

That said, if silver surprises to the upside and breaks above $35.00 in the coming days, the rallies in gold and mining stocks could extend beyond April.

Meanwhile, I see the stock market entering the early stages of a cyclical bear market—one that could push prices well below the April lows and, eventually, weigh on both metals and miners.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and an expert in technical analysis. For more price predictions and daily market commentary, consider subscribing at www.GoldPredict.com.