Advertisement
Advertisement
Gold Price Forecast – Entering the Final Blowoff Phase Toward a Major Top
By:
Key Points:
- Markets staged a dramatic short-covering rally on Wednesday after Trump announced a 90-day suspension of reciprocal tariffs. The S&P surged 9.5%, posting its third-largest gain since 1940.
- At the same time, tensions flared as China struck back, raising tariffs on U.S. imports to 125%. A 10% baseline tariff now applies to all nations, while the 25% levies on steel, aluminum, and autos remain unchanged.
- Gold, which had dipped below $3,000 following the tariff news, reversed sharply higher. Prices appear to be in a climatic blowoff phase, with a brief spike above $3,300 likely before a multi-month correction of 10% to 20%.
- Gold miners also rallied to new highs after being tossed around in a volatile 15% swing last week. However, with gold nearing a significant top, the current breakout looks unsustainable. Buyers chasing the recent move may find themselves caught in a classic bull trap.
Gold Peaks After Stocks
At major market inflection points, equities typically peak first, with gold topping out a couple months later. Take the 2022 bear market, for instance: the S&P 500 hit its high in January, but gold continued climbing another 13% before topping out in March. This cycle appears to be following a similar pattern—stocks peaked in February 2025, and I believe gold is now in the final stages of its blowoff phase, with a top likely this month, potentially as soon as next week.
Gold Weekly
Tagging the upper boundary of the 10-week EMA envelope usually stops gold dead in its tracks. That level next week will be around $3,330. During the 2022 blowoff phase in gold, prices reversed immediately after touching the upper boundary, 2 months after the top in the S&P 500.
Gold Cycle Indicator
Our Gold Cycle Indicator is at 405 and entering maximum cycle topping. A brief spike above $3,300 is likely before peaking in the coming days.
Gold
Gold never closed below the 50-day EMA after the tariff whipsaw and thus never confirmed a cycle top. Prices are up 27% from the November low and are stretched 20% above the 200-day MA. Prices are EXTREMELY OVERBOUGHT. A major top appears imminent in the coming days, likely followed by a 10% to 20% multi-month correction.
Silver
The odds of silver making new cycle highs are low. However, we could see a rebound to the 50-day EMA. Before this cycle bottoms, I’ll look for prices to retest support near $26.00.
Platinum
Platinum is bouncing, but I don’t think it will last. Prices could retest support near $800 before this cycle bottoms.
GDX
Gold miners will likely test the upper trend channel and could spike briefly above $50 before peaking, possibly next week. Anyone buying this breakout will likely get caught in a massive bull trap.
GDXJ
Juniors are making fresh cycle highs as gold enters the final blowoff phase of its intermediate rally. Anyone buying this breakout will likely be caught in a bull trap.
NEM
Newmont will likely fill the gap between $55.00 and $57.00 before topping in the coming days.
BARRICK
Barrick is likely to test the October high near $21.10 before peaking in the coming days.
S&P 500
Wednesday’s epic rally was fueled by massive short-covering. Extreme market volatility destroys bulls and bears alike. We could see a rebound back towards 5,600, but I don’t think it will last. Ultimately, I expect prices to roll over and retest the April low (at a minimum) in the coming months.
In Conclusion
While gold may still see a final spike before topping out, caution is strongly advised for anyone looking to chase this breakout.
Gold miners, in particular, warrant extra vigilance. The current surge is likely a bull trap, with prices expected to reverse later this month.
The stock market is enjoying a short-term bounce following Trump’s 90-day tariff pause, but the broader outlook points to the early stages of a new bear market—one that could persist through at least mid-year.
AG Thorson is a registered CMT and an expert in technical analysis. For more price predictions and daily market commentary, consider subscribing at www.GoldPredict.com.
About the Author
AG Thorsoncontributor
AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle that will begin to unravel in 2020.
