Gold markets have shown a bit of positivity during the trading session on Monday, as we are trying to build a bit of a base for a potential recovery.
Gold markets have stabilized over the last few days, as we are sitting above the 61.8% Fibonacci level. However, looking at the chart, there is still quite a bit of overhead noise, and it will be difficult to simply break out. The $1950 level of course is an area that a lot of people will pay attention to, followed by the 50-Day EMA. After that, then we could look toward the $2000 level.
Alternatively, the market does have the 200-Day EMA sitting just below the 61.8% Fibonacci level, and therefore I think it does offer a little bit of a “floor the market.” That being said, if we were to break down below there it could move the selling process forward. Underneath that, then the market could drop all the way to the $1800 level. If that were to happen, it would almost certainly be the end of gold for a while, but I don’t see that happening. In fact, in the futures market, the gold market did gap to the upside. While I see a lot of noise above, it’s likely that we could see a lot of volatility. However, once we start to break out to the upside, it could be more of an explosive move, as there are a lot of concerns out there about wealth preservation.
The negative correlation between the US dollar and gold has been important recently, but that does tend to be a state of flux at all times. Alternatively, the market is likely to continue to see varying degrees of influence. Because of this, it’s not a “one factor” that you can look at, but unfortunately, a lot of retail traders are stuck in that thinking. While the US dollar can certainly have a major influence, you can often see them go higher at the same time, if it has something to do with the demand for wealth preservation or for that matter, just some type of safety. The 200-Day EMA underneath should continue to be important, therefore think a lot of traders will be paying close attention to some type of bounce that they can take advantage of.
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Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.