Gold markets have initially tried to rally during the holiday session on Thursday but continue to find the same barrier just above to cause problems.
Gold has rallied a bit during the early hours on Thursday, but keep in mind that it is a very thin session, and the actual open market is not going to be moving during the trading session as it is Thanksgiving in the United States. At this point, the $2000 region continues to be a bit of a barrier, and therefore I think it’s very difficult to rise from here. Furthermore, the market has rallied over the last couple of weeks, and therefore it’s likely that we need to work off some of the potential excess froth anyway.
Looking at the bond market will be crucial, due to the fact that yield has such a huge negative correlation to the gold market, and of course the bond markets are going to be trading over the holiday. With that being the case, there’s probably not a whole lot out there to move the market in the short term. You can also start to argue that that we might be trying to form some type of double top in this region as well, so all of this comes together for the likelihood of consolidation to take over the market again.
Underneath, we have the 50-Day EMA, the 38.2% Fibonacci level, and uptrend line, and the 200-Day EMA within a $30 range. In other words, there is a lot of support underneath it could come in and lift the market, and quite frankly I think a pullback at this point probably attracts people looking at that region.
However, if we were to break above the most recent high, then it allows the market to go looking toward the $2100 level, possibly even higher than that. You could make a little bit of an assumption that eventually we could go higher, but that doesn’t mean you should jump into the market right away without some type of confirmation. After all, this looks a lot like a market that you should be able to pick up “cheap gold” if you are patient enough, and by most metrics, that will be exactly what you should be doing at the moment.
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Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.