Gold markets initially fell during the session on Monday, but continued to find buyers near the 61.8% Fibonacci level, and of course just above the 200-Day EMA.
Gold markets have pulled back just a bit during the trading session on Monday, but then turned around to show signs of life as it looks like value hunters continue to come into the marketplace. It’s worth noting that the 200-Day EMA sits just below, as does the 61% Fibonacci level, and therefore I think there is a certain amount of technical support in that area, perhaps attracting traders back into the market given enough time.
All things being equal, this is a market that is currently trading between the 200-Day EMA below, and the 50-Day EMA above. Quite often, this is a sign that you are about to see some type of squeeze, and that squeeze of course could lead to bigger moves. The fact that the 61.8% Fibonacci level has held over the last couple of weeks does give a little bit of hope for the gold bulls, but now we have to pay close attention to the US Dollar, and what’s going on in the Forex world as the 2 have a negative correlation. Beyond that, we also have to look at the possibility that interest rates dropping may help gold as well, which we had seen early during the day on Monday.
With this being said, we can break above the $1950 level, then we have a real shot at breaking out to the upside, perhaps reaching toward the $2000 level. If we turn around and break down below the 200-Day EMA, which would be essentially the same thing as testing the $1900 level, then we could see more selling pressure, and at that point I think we might have a potential breakdown toward the $1800 level, which would be a complete wipeout of the previous move.
In general, I think a lot of the markets around the world are waiting to see what central banks are going to do, as there seems to be a lot of disbelief when it comes to the idea of what may happen next as far as interest rate hikes, and if they do start to loosen monetary policy around the world, gold will take off quite drastically. Until then, we are simply trying to form some type of bottom.
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Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.