Gold markets did very little during the trading session on Thursday as we continue to wait for the jobs figure.
You can see that the gold market has been somewhat quiet during the early hours on Thursday as we are trying to sort out whether or not there is enough support underneath to keep the gold market afloat. Another thing to pay close attention to is the fact that Friday is the non-farm payroll announcement and therefore Thursday probably more or less is a day that is going to be quiet by default. The non-farm payroll announcement will have a major influence on the bond market, which in turn could move the gold market as falling interest rates could be very positive for gold and of course vice versa. That being said, there are plenty of geopolitical concerns out there that could lift gold as well.
So, I still believe that there are plenty of buyers underneath. In fact, I think the 50 day EMA and the $2,000 level just below there will continue to be a major floor in the market. On some type of pullback and a bounce, I am willing to start to build up a bit of a position, but I also recognize that the next 24 hours could be very noisy and therefore, it might be a bit difficult to read too much into the market, but liquidity should start to pick up on.
By Monday I think once we get to that point where gold will show its true colors. If we were to break down below $2000 that would be a very negative sign. On the other hand, if we turn around and break above the $2075 level, then the market could really start to take off to the upside and we could continue the overall uptrend. In that environment, I suspect that it will be a breakdown of the US dollar that leads the market, not necessarily some type of major desire to own gold specifically. Furthermore, you would also need to get paid to hold on to gold, so momentum is very important. Remember, gold does not pay any type of yield, so traders tend to prefer yield due to the fact that they don’t have to pay for storage. This is the one downfall of gold but ultimately with everything that’s going on in the world, it’s not a bad idea to own some.
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Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.