Gold markets initially tried to rally on Monday but with the Juneteenth holiday going on in the United States, it had a negative effect on liquidity.
Gold markets have initially rallied a bit during the trading session on Monday but gave back gains as we just don’t have the momentum to go higher. Pay close attention to the interest rate markets, because the rates rising will continue to work against the value of gold, as it is so sensitive to it. Furthermore, we have to ask whether or not this is an “H pattern” or a double bottom. There are a lot of questions to be asked about gold at the moment, but quite frankly the markets will probably continue to be volatile more than anything else.
I would not put too much into the Monday session though, because quite frankly the lack of volume is going to distort what we are going to do for the day. All things being equal, this is a market that I think continues to be very noisy, but you should pay close attention to the uptrend line underneath, as it has been intact for two years. Eventually, I do think that gold rallies, but we have a lot of work to do. Interest rate markets have gotten so out of control that is difficult to imagine that rates will continue to rise the way they have.
If we were to turn around and break above the $1880 level, the market could continue to go much higher. But at this point time, it’s likely that we are going to break above the $1900 level, possibly even the $2000 level. In general, I think we are going to see a lot of noisy behavior, so therefore you need to be cautious about your position size but if you are a short-term trader, you may be able to take a look at the market as an opportunity to go back and forth in a range-bound system.
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Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.