Gold markets initially tried to rally a bit during the session on Tuesday, but seem to be a little bit tired at this point, which makes sense considering we had seen such a massive run higher.
Gold markets initially tried to rally during the trading session on Tuesday, but then gave back the gains to show signs of weakness. We fell pretty drastically but then turned around to show signs of life again. All things being equal, the $2000 level above is a major resistance barrier, and of course a large, round, psychologically significant figure. This is an area that traders have been looking at for some time, and have fallen from multiple times in the past. Because of this, I think it’s probably only a matter of time before we pull back a little bit deeper. Whether or not we do so drastically remains to be seen, but it is probably worth noting that the major turnaround in gold had more to do with the geopolitical concerns than anything else.
Interest rates are still very high, so it doesn’t necessarily think that the market will be able to continue going higher forever. Furthermore, if we get some type of relaxation on tensions in the Middle East, the market then breaks down rather drastically. In that environment, I suspect that the market could go looking to the 50-Day EMA, followed by the 200-Day EMA.
On the other hand, if we were to turn around and take out the $2000 level handily on a daily close, then the gold market could go much higher. At that point, I think you probably have another $50 that traders will be looking to pick up, and then perhaps breaking out above there. A lot of this comes down to geopolitical noise, so it’s difficult to predict it, but at this point it’s obvious that the market had gotten a little overdone so a little bit of digestion does make a certain amount of sense after a massive run higher that we have seen. That being said, if we get some type of bad headline coming out across the newswire, that can change the attitude of the market almost immediately, and therefore you will have to be very cognizant of headlines and recognize that things can change in an instant.
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Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.