Gold markets rallied a bit during the trading session on Wednesday, as it looks like we are heading to tense the previous support level for resistance.
Gold has completely ignored the PPI numbers coming out twice what they were expected to be in the United States, and despite the fact that inflation is so strong, it looks like the traders in the markets are going to continue to see gold at least attempt to rally. The CPI numbers on Thursday will probably be much more impactful, and it’s probably worth noting that the 50-Day EMA is getting ready to cross below the 200-Day EMA, kicking off the so-called “death cross.” We also have the $1900 level in that general vicinity, which of course has a lot of market memory attached to it.
Gold will continue to move right along with bond markets, so pay close attention to those yields. If those yields start to turn around and rally again, that will be absolutely toxic for gold. Given enough time, there could come in the “safety trade”, into the gold market at least, which may be part of what we have seen over the last couple of days. The $1800 level underneath is a major support level, and an area that would be difficult to break through.
In general, this is a market that I believe continues to be noisy, but it has had a nice relief rally, something that probably get sold into. On the other hand, if we break above those moving averages above, that opens up the possibility of a move to the $1950 level, and then possibly even the $2000 level. That being said, I don’t think it’s going to be an easy move to make that happen, but if we get above those moving averages, I would assume that we should eventually get to that $2000 level.
All things being equal, you need to be cautious with your position sizing but I do recognize that it’s also become a bit of a short-term trading environment. That’s probably true with most markets around the world, so I don’t know that gold would or should be any different at this point in time. We’ve had a nice rally, but we still have a long way to go to change everything in the opposite direction.
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Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.