Gold markets rallied during the trading session on Friday, as it looks like we are going to challenge the $2000 level.
Gold rallied again during the day on Friday, reaching the $2000 level. Ultimately, this is a market that I think has to look through the prism of whether or not we can break this massive resistance barrier, which I don’t know that we can. The $2000 level above is going to continue to offer significant resistance, but if we break above there it could open up the possibility of the $2100 level being targeted. Anything above there would obviously be a very bullish breakout, and therefore could open up a flood of buying pressure.
That being said, we could very well pull back from here, which I think is probably more likely than not, given the fact that there is so much in the way of trouble above. Sideways trading continues to be a major factor here, and that does make a lot of sense considering that there is so much noise out there that will move markets in general. Gold could be attractive due to geopolitical concerns, but at the same time we have higher than usual rates in the United States that will provide a little bit of a drag on gold. That being said, it seems like gold moves in a negative correlation to these yields on a day-to-day basis, so I think that’s also going to cause a lot of noise.
Underneath, we have a 50-Day EMA that offers support just below the candlestick from the Wednesday session, and of course people are now starting to think that the Federal Reserve is thinking about slowing down its monetary policy, so a lot of traders are trying to front run that central bank move through the gold markets. Whether or not that pans out remains to be seen, but I do think that we’ve got a situation where the volatility is going to get worse, not better and therefore you need to be cautious with your position sizing. At this point, that’s about the only thing that you can control, as the market seems schizophrenic to say the least. To trade this market, you will have to have one eye on the charts, and another eye on the yields coming out of the 10 year note in America.
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Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.