Gold markets were rather quiet during the session on Thursday, as a certain amount of liquidity would have been pulled from the market. Remember, the futures market would have been open for just a normal time.
Gold markets have gone back and forth during the trading session on Thursday, as we continue to see a lot of choppy behavior. Keep in mind that we are currently sitting at a significant trendline, so it should not be a huge surprise to see that we have stalled. Keep in mind that the market had sold off quite substantially just before this, so it does make sense that we would pause. In fact, I would anticipate that we will get some type of short term recovery. That being said, it’s very likely that any rally at this point will simply be a selling opportunity.
The 50 day ma is currently trying to cross below the 200 day ma, so we could get the so called begin “death cross” forming, which of course is very bearish. Keep an eye on the US dollar overall, because if it continues to strengthen, that will work against the value of gold itself. It is not until we clear the $1820 level that I would be comfortable thinking about buying. If we break down below the lows of the Wednesday session, it’s very likely that gold could go looking toward the $1760 level initially, on its way down towards the $1725 level.
Quite frankly, unless the overall fundamental picture for the United states dollar changes, I just don’t see how gold will take off or a bigger move. This recent sell off has been rather brutal, and typically these types of moves don’t happen in a vacuum. I anticipate that Friday will probably be somewhat quiet, simply due to the fact that most North American traders will be away.
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Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.