The gold market had a bit of a tumble early on Thursday, as the USD started to show strength yet again.
Gold has had a rough early morning on Thursday as we have reached down to the 50 day EMA but at this point I do expect quite a bit of support. Therefore, I would not be surprised at all that if, by the end of the day, the market has turned around. I do think that given enough time gold will take off to the upside, perhaps trying to reach towards the $2,050 level, followed by the $2,075 level.
It is in the $2,075 level that I think the rubber meets the road, if you will, as the market will then have the ability to go much higher over the longer term, so in that environment, it becomes buy and hold. While I expect this to happen eventually, I don’t know what we would see to cause this, only that the market seems to be waiting for something to either be said, or done to get moving again.
I’m not even sure what the target would be beyond the large candlestick that formed on December 4th, which would end up being somewhere near $2,140. Gold is something that I do not want to sell right now due to the fact that we have so much in the way of geopolitical concerns. And of course, central banks around the world will be cutting rates this year.
It’s a bit of a perfect storm for gold given enough time, but do keep in mind that this is a contract that tends to be very noisy and therefore don’t be surprised at all to see a lot of volatility. Quite frankly, it does tend to trade on rates and currency fluctuations as well, so we’ll have to pay close attention to that. Nonetheless, I am bullish longer term. And if you keep your position size reasonable, it does make up a strong part of a portfolio.
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Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.