Gold Price Forecast: Impending Cycle Top Supports Multi-Month Decline

Liberation Day

Trump’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs was far more damaging than anyone anticipated. Unless he reverses them quickly, I don’t see anything—aside from aggressive Fed rate cuts—that could prevent the stock market from continuing its downward slide.

Bullion Exemption

Since December, precious metals have seen steady inflows into the U.S. in anticipation of potential tariffs. However, the statement below clarifies that “bullion” is exempt, indicating that the frontloading may have been unnecessary, which could create a headwind for metal prices.

Equity Bear Market

I became very bearish on the S&P 500 in January as the weekly MACD (bottom) diverged as prices made new highs. The recent breakdown supports a new bear market similar to 2022, with a projected return to 4,800 by mid-year.

Our Gold Cycle Indicator reached overbought status earlier this week, and on April 3, 2025, we issued a Cycle Top Warning to members.

Gold

Gold formed a massive outside reversal day on the reciprocal tariff announcement, supporting a cycle top. Downside targets will depend on the severity of the bear market in equities. A retest of $2,800 is feasible by May or June.

Silver

Silver collapsed after the tariff announcement due to recession fears and clarity on exemptions for bullion. The impending decline could be severe, and prices could test or potentially break the December $28.75 low before bottoming in May or June.

Platinum

Platinum failed to make new highs, and a drop back to the range lows near $800 seems likely.

GDX Daily

Gold miners exploded out of the December low as forecasted, rallying 40% in 3-months. The MACD (bottom) diverges, and the odds favor a cycle top. Given the meltdown in equity markets, Thursday’s bullish price action was a nice surprise and perhaps the last opportunity to exit near the top.

GDX Weekly

A dip below $40.00 is likely in GDX before making new highs later this year.

GDXJ Weekly

Junior gold miners remain below the 2020 peak despite gold trading at new all-time highs. Prices could dip below $50 in May or June before breaking out later this year.

In Conclusion

Metals and miners likely reached their cycle peaks, and we could see notable declines into May or June.

The initial targets mentioned above may be adjusted as the severity of the stock market decline becomes more evident.

We believe gold is in the early stages of a multi-year bull trend, with prices expected to reach $8,000 or higher later in the decade.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and an expert in technical analysis. For more price predictions and daily market commentary, consider subscribing at www.GoldPredict.com.