Gold Price Forecast – Prices Must Hold $3,800 Next Week

Gold Cycle Indicator

The Gold Cycle Indicator finished at 9.

Gold 2022 VS Now

Gold is retesting its October low, following a pattern similar to 2022. Prices need to stabilize and reclaim $4,000 next week to support a potential bottom. Consecutive closes below $3,800 would confirm a breakdown, likely opening the door to a decline toward the $3,500 area.

Silver

Silver has yet to confirm today’s breakdown in gold. Prices would need to close below the lower trendline boundary for consecutive sessions to establish a convincing breakdown.

Platinum

Platinum is also refusing to confirm the breakdown in gold, suggesting underlying resilience. Progressive closes above the cycle trendline would strengthen the case for a meaningful bottom and support the potential for a renewed advance.

GDX

Miners failed to hold the backtest of the trendline near $86.00, and the pullback is now developing into a deeper correction. However, I believe it would likely take a sustained breakdown in gold below $3,800 to trigger more significant selling pressure. Until that happens, my preferred outlook remains that miners established a secondary low in late October and are undergoing a temporary pullback rather than the start of a larger decline.

GDXJ

Junior miners closed below the $100 level, confirming a deeper corrective phase. The next major area to watch is the final gap support near $95.00.

SILJ

Silver juniors continue to hold above their October pivot low, suggesting the broader bottoming structure remains intact. A sustained close below the price gap near $22.40 would be needed to signal renewed weakness and open the door to a deeper correction.

NEM

Newmont needs to hold its 200-day moving average to support the view that the recent weakness is merely an aggressive pullback rather than the beginning of a more significant decline. A sustained break below this key technical level would raise the risk of additional selling pressure, with final support emerging near $107.50.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin has slipped below $75,000 and lost its 200-day moving average, marking a potentially critical turning point in the trend. This is where selling pressure could accelerate, opening the door to a much deeper correction. However, I continue to believe that a move to fresh lows in Q4 would likely require an accompanying stock market decline.

Conclusion

The price action in precious metals next week will be crucial. If gold stabilizes and rallies back above $4,000, it would provide strong confirmation that a bottom is in place. However, continued weakness below $3,800 would suggest further downside toward $3,500, potentially culminating in a December low.

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