Gold Price Forecast: Support Levels Hold, Upside Potential Remains

Volatility in gold declines on Wednesday as pulls back to find support at 2,361. That is just above the 8-Day MA at 23.59. Another successful test of support at the 8-Day line keeps open the possibility of a continuation of the advance. The 8-Day line has done a good job of identifying support of the sharp rally. Therefore, a drop below the line is a sign of weakening that could lead to a deeper retracement.

Holding Above Support

Moreover, consolidation over the past eight days or so has occurred above support represented by the two top channel trendlines. Whereas previously the lines represented potential resistance. If gold can stay above key near-term support of both the 8-Day line and trendlines, it has a chance of continuing to advance before a deeper pullback than what’s been seen so far.

Demand Remains Strong

A 38.2% Fibonacci retracement was completed on Monday and buyers quickly stepped up to provide support. That day ended strong, in the upper quarter of the day’s price range and above the 8-Day MA. Earlier in the day natural gas had traded below the 8-Day line for a short time. In other words, the sellers had a chance to take it lower, but they could not. With the buyers remaining in chart, the potential for an upside continuation remains. Strength will next be indicated in a rally above Tuesday’s high of 2,398, with an earlier signal generated on a break above today’s high of 2,396.

Caution is Warranted Given Last Friday’s Bearish Signs

Last Friday’s sharp reversal off the new record high of 2,431 indicates caution is warranted for the long side. It has characteristics of a key reversal day that may yet see follow through to the downside. There is a possibility of hitting resistance prior to a new record high as trading is occurring within Friday’s range. Given the recent consolidation near the trend highs and difficulty in moving higher, there is always a risk of a sharp decline.

Of course, those looking to enter gold would likely prefer an entry following a pullback as it will set up a better risk/reward ratio. Nevertheless, a breakout to new trend highs will indicate that a pullback may not be coming before the bull trend continues. Those waiting on the sidelines will be forced to enter or continue to wait.

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