Gold Price Forecast XAU/USD – Traders Eyeing Fed Minutes, Core PCE Price Index for Rate Hike Clues

Gold futures edged higher in a thin trade on Monday due to Presidents’ Day holiday in the United States. The buying was tentative as investors awaited upcoming U.S. economic data for clues on the Federal Reserve’s rate-hike path. Gains were capped by a slightly higher greenback, which pressured foreign demand for the dollar-denominated asset.

On Monday, April Comex gold settled at $1850.30, up $0.10 or +0.01%. XAU/USD closed at $1843.76, up $4.985 or +0.27%. On Friday, the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) finished at $171.28, up $0.53 or +0.31%.

Gold futures were pressured last week as economic data showed signs of a resilient U.S. economy and a tight labor market, sparking concerns that the Fed would keep interest rates higher for longer.

This week, investor attention will be on Wednesday’s release of the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) January meeting minutes, Thursday’s U.S. GDP data and Friday’s PCE Index inflation report.

Daily April Comex Gold Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $1827.70 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. A more through $1902.30 will change the main trend to up.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through $1881.60 will change the minor trend to up. This will shift the momentum.

The long-term range is $2039.00 to $1647.70. April Comex gold is currently trading inside its retracement zone, making $1843.40 support and $1889.50 resistance.

The main range is $1749.60 to $1975.20. Its 50% level at $1862.40 falls inside the long-term retracement zone at $1862.40.

Daily April Comex Gold Technical Forecast

Trader reaction to the long-term 50% level at $1843.40 is likely to determine the direction of the April Comex gold futures contract early Tuesday.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $1843.40 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could trigger a fast move into $1862.40. Overcoming this level will indicate the buying is getting stronger with the next target $1881.60 to $1889.50.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $1827.70 will signal the presence of sellers. The first downside target is last week’s low at $1827.70. Taking out this level will indicate the selling is getting stronger. This could lead to a labored break with potential downside targets staggered at $1819.90, $1808.40 and $1797.60.