Gold Price Forecast XAU/USD – Traders Seeking Clarity from Fed Meeting Minutes

Gold futures are nearly flat early Wednesday with most of the major players on the sidelines ahead of the release of the minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting which could offer clues as to the duration of central bank interest rate hikes.

At 09:49 GMT, April Comex gold futures are trading $1844.20, up $1.70 or +0.09% and the XAU/USD is at $1835.69, up 0.045 or +0.00%. On Tuesday, the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) settled at $170.61, down $0.65 or -0.38%.

Gold fell sharply the previous session after data showed U.S. business activity- unexpectedly rebounded in February to its highest level in eight months – the latest in a stream of data that have shown signs of a resilient U.S. economy and a tight labor market.

The minutes of the Fed’s latest meeting are due at 19:00 GMT on Wednesday. The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points at its Jan. 31-Feb. 1 meeting, and is expected to raise benchmark rates above 5% by May with a peak seen at 5.34% in July.

Long-Term Outlook Suggests Balanced Market

Currently, gold is sitting on the midpoint of its long-term trading range of $2039.00 to $1647.70. This level is $1843.40. This suggests the market is balanced from a long-term perspective with traders preparing for the next major move.

A hawkish Fed could put further pressure on prices with the Nov. 23 main bottom at $1749.60 a potential target. Or prices could start to climb once traders determine a reasonable Fed terminal rate target.

Daily April Comex Gold Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $1827.70 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. A move through $1902.30 will change the main trend to up.

The minor trend is also down. A move through $1856.40 will change the minor trend to up. This will shift momentum to the upside.

The main range is $1749.60 to $1975.20. The market is currently trading on the weak side of its pivot at $1862.40, making it resistance.

Daily April Comex Gold Technical Forecast

Trader reaction to the long-term 50% level at $1843.40 is likely to determine the direction of the April Comex gold futures contract on Wednesday.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $1843.40 will indicate the presence of sellers. The first target is a minor bottom at $1827.70. Taking out this level with conviction could lead to an eventual retest of $1749.60.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $1843.40 will signal the presence of buyers. The first upside target is a pivot at $1862.40. Overtaking this level will indicate the buying is getting stronger with $1889.50 the next key target price.