Gold Price Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – August 1, 2017 Forecast

December Comex gold futures are trading slightly lower shortly before the cash market opening. The market is mirroring the movement by the U.S. Dollar.

Besides the U.S. Dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, investors should watch the U.S. stock markets. If they continue to rally then gold is likely to be limited on the upside. It may even break lower. If all three major stock indexes decline then gold may be underpinned.

Traders should also look for volatility with the release of the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI report and the Core PCE Price Index.

Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. However, yesterday’s closing price reversal top has slowed the upside momentum. This doesn’t mean the trend is changing to down, but it could lead to the start of a 2 to 3 day correction.

A trade through $1277.30 will negate the reversal top and signal a resumption of the uptrend. The trend will change to down on a trade through $1249.40.

The main range is $1305.50 to $1211.10. Its retracement zone at $1269.40 to $1258.30 should be considered support. Holding above this zone will help maintain the market’s upside bias.

The short-term range is $1211.10 to $1277.30. If the trend changes to down then look for a break into its retracement zone at $1244.20 to $1236.40.

Forecast

Based on the current price at $1272.50, I’m looking for an upside bias to develop on a sustained move over $1275.10 and a downside bias under $1269.40.

Overtaking $1275.10 will indicate the presence of buyers with $1277.30 the first target. A breakout over this top will likely lead to a rally into a long-term downtrending angle at $1285.90.

A failure to hold $1269.40 will likely lead to a break into the short-term uptrending angle at $1265.40. Breaking this angle could trigger an acceleration into a support cluster at $1258.30 to $1257.40.