Gold Price Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – Minor Trend Changes to Up on Trade Through $1739.10

Gold futures are inching higher on Thursday following the release of a better-than-expected U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims report and ahead of a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell that could determine the near-term trend in the market.

At 14:48 GMT, April Comex gold is trading $1711.70, up $2.40 or +0.14%.

Gold traders are posting a two-sided trade, buoyed by mixed movement in U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. Dollar.

In economic news, weekly jobless claims edged higher last week but rose less than expected for an economy struggling to shake off impacts from a pandemic that has been around now for nearly a year.

The Labor Department on Thursday reported that first-time filings for unemployment insurance in the week-ended February 27 totaled a seasonally adjusted 745,000, a touch below the Dow Jones estimate of 750,000. The total was a slight uptick from the previous week’s upwardly revised 736,000.

Look for volatility at 17:05 GMT when Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks.

Gold investors are anxious to see if Powell expresses concern about a recent volatile sell-off in Treasuries and if there is any change in his assessment of the economy before the Fed’s next meeting ending March 17.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $1699.40 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. The main trend will change to up on a move through $1815.20.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through $1739.10 will change the minor trend to up. This will also shift momentum to the upside.

The major long-term range is $1467.00 to $2107.60. Its retracement zone is $1787.30 to $1711.70. The market has been straddling the lower level for three straight sessions.

The minor range is $1815.20 to $1699.40. Its 50% level at $1759.90 is the first upside target.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The early price action suggests the direction of the gold market into the close on Thursday will be determined by trader reaction to $1711.70.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $1711.70 will indicate the presence of buyers. Taking out $1739.10 will change the minor trend to up. This could trigger a surge into $1759.90, followed by $1787.30. This level is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $1711.70 will signal the presence of sellers. Taking out $1699.40 could trigger an acceleration to the downside with $1679.60 the next potential downside target.

Side Notes

Watch the price action and read the order flow on a test of $1739.10. Taking out this level could trigger the start of a significant short-term rally.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.