Gold Price Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – Near-Term Bullish Over $1833.00, Bearish Under $1817.50

Gold futures are edging higher at the mid-session on Wednesday shortly before the release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes at 19:00 GMT. The market is also being supported by a weaker U.S. Dollar, but gains are likely being capped by rising U.S. Treasury yields.

At 18:02 GMT, February Comex gold futures are trading $1823.80, up $9.20 or +0.52%. This is down from an intraday high of $1830.70. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) is at $170.32, up $0.75 or +0.44%.

With inflation having surged in the past six months, investors will scan the minutes from the Fed’s December meeting for signs of policymakers’ willingness to tighten monetary policy.

In economic news, data compiled by ADP showed U.S. private payrolls grew by 807,000 in December. That’s more than double the Dow Jones estimate of 375,000. To be sure, the survey covers through the middle of December, before the worst of omicron COVID-19 spread.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $1833.00 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through $1785.00 will change the main trend to down.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through $1798.10 will change the minor trend to down. This will shift momentum to the downside.

The main range is $1881.90 to $1753.00. Gold futures are currently testing its retracement zone at $1817.50 to $1832.70. This area is controlling the near-term direction of the market.

On the downside, the nearest support is $1809.00, followed by $1793.00. The major support is a long-term retracement zone at $1781.00 to $1757.10.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the February Comex gold futures contract into the close on Wednesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to $1817.50.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $1817.50 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move generates enough upside momentum then look for a surge into the resistance cluster at $1832.70 – $1833.00.

Crossing to the strong side of the main Fibonacci level at $1832.70 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. A move through the main top at $1833.00 could trigger an acceleration to the upside.

The daily chart indicate there is plenty of room to the upside with $1881.90 the next potential upside target.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $1817.50 will signal the presence of sellers. The first downside target is $1809.00. Buyers could come in on the first test of this level, but if it fails then look for a sharp break into $1798.10, followed by $1793.00.