Gold Price Prediction – Prices Edge Higher Following Weak US Data

Gold prices moved higher on Thursday following a slew of US economic data which came in worse than expected. GDP shrank by 5%, durable goods orders fell by 17% and jobless claims continued to rise climbing by 2.1-million. Despite a robust jobless claims headline number, this was the lowest total since the coronavirus crisis began. The dollar moved lower but failed to generate tailwinds for gold prices as US yields edged higher. Riskier assets continued to rally which capped any upward momentum in gold prices.

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Technical analysis

Gold prices moved higher but was unable to push through resistance near the 5-day moving average at $1,719,  Target support is still an upward sloping trend line that comes in near $1,693. Below that level is support near the 50-day moving average at $1,675. Short-term momentum has turned negative as the fast stochastic recently generated a crossover sell signal in overbought territory. Medium-term momentum has also turned negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index recently generated a crossover sell signal. This occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses below the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line). The MACD histogram has also generated a crossover sell signal. The histogram is printing in the red with a declining trajectory which points to lower prices.

US GDP Contracted More than Expected

GDP which is the broadest measure of economic health, fell at an annual rate of 5% in the Q1 a bigger decline than the 4.8% drop first estimated a month ago. It was the biggest quarterly decline since an 8.4% fall in the fourth quarter of 2008.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.