Gold Price Prediction – Prices Rose as Durable Goods Orders Slide

Gold prices moved higher, although the dollar continued to rise.  Since gold prices are quoted in U.S. dollars, a stronger greenback will generally weigh on the value of the yellow metal. The 10-year Treasury yield attempted to move higher but was unable to gain traction and dropped another 2-basis points following a substantial decline on Monday and Tuesday.

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Technical analysis

Gold prices moved higher, rebounding from Tuesday’s slide. Prices were unable to recapture resistance resistance near the 10-day moving average at 1,734. Target resistance is now seen near the 50-day moving average at 1,788. Additional support is seen near the June lows at 1,670.   Short-term momentum has flipped and is now negative as the fast stochastic generated a crossover sell signal, just above the oversold trigger level, and has now moved lower.  The current reading on the fast stochastic is 76, just below the overbought trigger level of 80, foreshadowing a correction. Medium-term momentum has turned positive. The MACD histogram is printing in positive territory with an upward sloping trajectory which points to higher prices.

Durable Goods Orders Fall

Durable goods orders decreased by 1.1% in February after jumping 3.5% a month earlier. Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, dropped 0.8% last month. Core capital goods orders gained 0.6% in January. Expectations were for  core capital goods orders would rise 0.5%. Core capital goods orders surged 8.5% on a year-on-year basis in February.