Gold Price Prediction – Prices Slip Despite Declining Greenback

Gold prices edged lower on Friday, after attempting to push higher earlier in the trading session. US yields were nearly unchanged but edged higher and the dollar lost ground especially against the Euro but the decline in the US dollar failed to buoy the yellow metal. The Commerce Department reported a larger than expected increase in Retail sales, but industrial production tumbled in the wake of the GM auto strike.

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Technical Analysis

Gold prices eased slightly on Friday, despite a weakening US dollar. Short term resistance is seen near the 10-day moving average at 1,472, and then the 100-day moving average at 1,478. Support on the yellow metal is seen near the November lows at 1,445 and then the October lows at 1,426.  The 10-day moving average crossed below the 100-day moving average which would show that a short-term downtrend is in place. Short term momentum has turned positive. The fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal. The current reading on the fast stochastic is 30 accelerating from below the oversold trigger level, which points to higher prices. Medium-term momentum is negative to neutral as the MACD histogram is printing in the red with a rising trajectory which points to consolidation.

Retail Sales Rises More than Expected

US Headline retail sales increased 0.3% last month, according to the Commerce Department lifted by motor vehicle purchases versus September’s unrevised 0.3% drop, which was the first decline in seven months. Expectations were for retail sales to rise by 0.2% on October. Retail sales increased 3.1% year over year. Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales increased 0.3% last month.