Gold Shows Underlying Strength Even Though Upward Momentum has Slowed

Gold Forecast Video for 13.04.23 by Bruce Powers

Gold almost reached a new trend high today before meeting resistance that pushed it down to below the 50% point of the day’s range. It looks like there is a good chance that gold will end the day’s session below the 50% level. At the time of this writing, half of the day’s range is at 2,015. A close below the 50% level indicates a slowdown in momentum within the day’s session. It brings into question gold’s ability to breakout to new trend highs in the near-term

Uptrend from March Lows Signals Higher Prices

Nevertheless, gold’s uptrend from the March lows remains in place and signaling higher prices. It is above both the 21-Day EMA and short uptrend line coming off the bottom of the pennant pattern (small triangle). The pennant was preceded by an 11.1% rally in only eight days and saw price clearly rejected at the 200-Day EMA support zone.

Given the long-term nature of the 200-Day line, this behavior is bullish long-term. It also indicates underlying strength in gold that began to show up again following a bullish breakout of the pennant last week on Tuesday. Momentum kicked in at that point but stalled on the second day of the breakout, leading to a pullback.

Shallow Retracement is Bullish

The retracement so far off last week’s high of 2,032 found support around the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level on Monday with a low of 1,982. Price subsequently bounced and triggered a bullish reversal today as gold rallied to a four-day high before turning back down intraday.

Short Trendline Support Key Near Term

If we look at the short uptrend line off the bottom of the pennant, it identified trend support over the past two days as the low of each day is almost an exact touch. Therefore, this line can be used going forward for nearby trend support. A drop below the line is an early sign of weakness, but more importantly, a daily close below the line provides a more significant indication that bearishness is increasing. If the bull pennant is to continue to follow-through as expected – in clear bullish fashion – the short uptrend line should hold as support, at least until gold advances above the trend high.

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