Gold, Silver, Copper Analysis: Middle East Crisis Spurs Safe-Haven Rush

Key Insights

• Gold’s rally linked to escalating Israel-Hamas conflict and its safe-haven status.
• Rising US Treasury yields and a stronger USD have restrained gold’s ascent.
• Investors eye US economic data, with focus on Q3 GDP and Fed Governor’s speech.

Quick Fundamental Outlook

Gold’s recent surge to levels not seen since May 16 is largely due to the intensifying Israel-Hamas conflict, enhancing its status as a safe-haven asset. However, rising US Treasury bond yields and a stronger US Dollar, driven by potential shifts from the Federal Reserve, have limited gold’s gains.

Investors await key US economic data, including Thursday’s US Q3 GDP, Durable Goods Orders, weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and Pending Home Sales figures. This data, along with Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s upcoming speech and US bond yield trends, will likely influence the US Dollar and, in turn, XAU/USD.

Despite the strong USD, geopolitical tensions, primarily from the Israel-Gaza situation, continue to support gold’s bullish stance. The conflict’s escalation, marked by Israel’s increased Gaza operations and potential ground invasion, heightens Middle East risk, pushing gold closer to its May 16 peak.

Gold Prices Forecast

Gold (XAU/USD) price sits at $1,985, experiencing a slight dip of 0.01% over the last 24 hours on the 4-hour chart. A key pivot point for the precious metal stands at $1,986. The immediate resistance is pegged at $1,998, with subsequent resistances at $2,012 and $2,023. On the downside, Gold finds immediate support at $1,963, followed by $1,947 and a more profound level at $1,932.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads 67, indicating a bullish sentiment as it edges close to the overbought threshold of 70. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is currently at $1,956. With Gold trading above this EMA, it’s suggestive of a short-term bullish trend.

From a technical chartist’s perspective, Gold is in an upward channel but seems poised for a potential breakout around the $1,980 mark. This observation implies that if the breakout occurs, a downtrend could be on the horizon.

Gold’s current trajectory seems bearish below the $1,986 pivot point. However, surpassing this mark could pivot to a bullish sentiment. In the short term, should the bearish sentiment prevail, Gold might test the $1,963 support level. If bullish, the $1,998 resistance may be challenged.

Silver Prices Forecast

Silver (XAG/USD), often considered the versatile metal, currently trades at $23.10, marking a marginal decline of 0.07% in the past 24 hours based on the 4-hour chart. The asset’s key pivot point is identified at $22.83. It faces immediate resistance at $23.32, followed by barriers at $23.69 and $24.11.

On the downside, silver garners support at $22.39, with subsequent cushions at $21.82 and $21.30. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently stands at 57, showcasing a moderately bullish sentiment given its position above the midline of 50.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) has a value of $22.84. Notably, silver trades slightly above this EMA, hinting at a short-term bullish momentum. However, chart patterns suggest that silver might breach its upward channel near $22.85, which, coupled with a potential 50 EMA crossover, indicates a possible downtrend.

The immediate trajectory for silver seems to be on the cusp, leaning bearish below $22.85. If this bearish momentum persists, the asset might gravitate towards the $22.39 support level. Conversely, a surge above the current level may challenge the immediate resistance of $23.32.

Copper Prices Forecast

Copper is trading at $3.65, which represents a 0.14% increase. Using a 4-hour chart timeframe, the metal’s pivot point stands firmly at $3.61. Resistance is anticipated at $3.67, followed by $3.70 and a stronger resistance at $3.74. Conversely, copper finds immediate support at $3.56, with subsequent levels at $3.52 and $3.48.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is clocked at 56, indicating a slightly bullish sentiment, as it rests above the neutral 50-mark. Meanwhile, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) stands at $3.62. Copper’s current price, being above this EMA, hints towards a short-term bullish inclination. The 4-hour chart showcases a symmetrical triangle, a pattern that traditionally denotes market indecision. This reflects a tug-of-war scenario between the bulls and bears.

Copper’s trend appears to be bullish as long as it stays above the $3.60 mark. The immediate future might see the metal testing the resistance at $3.67, especially if the bullish sentiment persists. However, traders should remain vigilant of the symmetrical triangle’s breakout direction, which will be decisive for copper’s trajectory.

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