Gold kicks off the Friday session with fresh U.S. inflation data and a sharp rise in Treasury real yields. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday that the October CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted basis, down from 0.6% in September. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, advanced 0.3%, matching August and September. Energy prices rose 0.7% during October after a 5.2% increase during the month of September, while gasoline increased 1% on a seasonally adjusted basis.
Some easing in Headline Inflation Isn’t Enough
For gold, the combination is not necessarily bullish. Despite the fact that the report showed some easing in headline monthly inflation, it wasn’t like it had a broad retreat in core prices. Slower headline inflation can reduce inflation-hedge demand and support expectations of a less restrictive Federal Reserve, yet the steady 0.3% core pace may keep policymakers cautious. The immediate driver of the market is going to be the change in expected rates and real yields rather than the CPI release itself.
Real Yields
The Treasury’s latest published daily par real yield curve is through yesterday. The 5-year real yield rose to 2.64%, the 10-year to 2.86%, and the 30-year to 3.25% on November 12. These figures were up from 2.35%, 2.63%, and 3.07%, respectively, on November 6. Higher real yields continue to cause problems as they increase the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset. The yield curve has also steepened in real terms over the long end, with a 30-year rate above the 5-year.
These Treasury figures are derived from TIPS par yields, not actual security prices. They do not establish a mechanically inverse relationship with gold by themselves, but a broad rise in inflation-adjusted yields is a meaningful hurdle. The CPI report itself carries data limitations. BLS did not collect October 2025 survey data during the lapse in appropriations via Congress, so it cannot publish a 12-month percentage change for October 2026 for the affected series.
Gold’s next test will be whether or not real yields stabilize after the post-CPI increase and whether investors interpret the report as easing inflation pressure or persisting core strength. It appears that the persisting core strength scenario is the one that is winning out, and therefore it’s worth watching that very closely.
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See all Gold forecastsThe Technical Analysis Is Still One of Negativity
Markets tried to rally during the early part of the trading session here on Friday, but have given back the gains rather quickly. The size of the candlestick on Thursday suggests that there are plenty of traders out there willing to short, and Friday’s little bit of a whimper of an attempt at recovery shows just how little strength buyers have at the moment.
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