Advertisement
Advertisement

Gold Weekly Fundamental Analysis Aug 13-17, 2012, Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Jan 1, 2011, 00:00 GMT+00:00

Introduction: Gold prices always rise when there is uncertainty in the global economy. In times of uncertainty, investors tend to run towards gold.

Gold Weekly Fundamental Analysis Aug 13-17, 2012, Forecast

Introduction: Gold prices always rise when there is uncertainty in the global economy. In times of uncertainty, investors tend to run towards gold. Suppose, rumors are flying high about some event in the world and this is increasing the uncertainty in the financial markets.

  • Gold reacts to uncertainty in the markets
  • Gold reacts to the Federal Reserve and monetary policy
  • A drop in major currencies can indicate a run into gold.
  • Remember investors tend to take profit from gold so watch for trading opportunities when investors are taking profits, not moving out of the markets.

 

Weekly Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold ended the week at 1620.25 moving up but staying within a trading range. Directional movement in Gold prices has been limited for a number of reasons. Physical interest in the metal has been weak; as has investment interest and policy-makers in the EU have managed to stabilize the situation in Europe, even if they have not come up with a solution to the problem yet.

All of which, suggests the market is in limbo waiting for fresh developments. There has been little eco data or news to support any movement. Rumors and hopes of monetary stimulus and a bit of risk aversion are all that has been propping up gold

Date

Last

Open

High

Low

Change %

Aug 10, 2012

1620.25

1616.85

1626.85

1606.35

0.20%

Aug 09, 2012

1616.95

1613.05

1618.85

1610.15

0.24%

Aug 08, 2012

1613.15

1611.25

1617.25

1603.95

0.11%

Aug 07, 2012

1611.35

1612.15

1619.15

1609.05

-0.06%

Aug 06, 2012

1612.25

1606.25

1616.05

1604.25

0.38%

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of Aug 6-10 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD

Date

Currency

Event 

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Aug 6

GBP

Halifax HPI m/m

-0.6%

-0.5%

0.8%

 

EUR

Sentix Investor Confidence

-30.3

-30.8

-29.6

 

GBP

BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y

0.1%

 

1.4%

Aug 7

CHF

Foreign Currency Reserves

406.5B

 

365.1B

 

CHF

CPI m/m

-0.5%

-0.5%

-0.3%

 

EUR

Italian Industrial Production m/m

-1.4%

-1.0%

1.0%

 

GBP

Manufacturing Production m/m

-2.9%

-4.0%

1.2%

 

EUR

Italian Prelim GDP q/q

-0.7%

-0.7%

-0.8%

 

EUR

German Factory Orders m/m

-1.7%

-0.9%

0.7%

 

GBP

NIESR GDP Estimate

-0.2%

 

-0.7%

Aug 8

CHF

SECO Consumer Climate

-17

-4

-8

 

EUR

German 10-y Bond Auction

1.42|1.8

 

1.31|1.5

 

EUR

German Industrial Production m/m

-0.9%

-0.8%

1.7%

 

USD

Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q

1.6%

1.5%

-0.9%

 

USD

Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q

1.7%

0.5%

1.3%

 

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

-3.7M

-0.6M

-6.5M

 

USD

10-y Bond Auction

1.68|2.5

 

1.46|3.6

Aug 9

GBP

Trade Balance

-10.1B

-8.5B

-8.4B

 

USD

Trade Balance

-42.9B

-47.4B

-48.0B

 

USD

Unemployment Claims

361K

371K

367K

 

USD

Mortgage Delinquencies

7.58%

 

7.40%

Aug 10

EUR

French Industrial Production m/m

0.0%

0.4%

-2.1%

 

GBP

PPI Input m/m

1.3%

1.4%

-2.9%

 

USD

Import Prices m/m

-0.6%

0.1%

-2.4%

 

USD

Federal Budget Balance

-69.6B

-103.0B

-59.7B

Historical: From 2010 to present

Highest: 1921.05 on Sep 06, 2011

Average: 1457.33 over this period

Lowest: 1044.85 on Feb 05, 2010

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event 

Previous

Aug 14

1:30

AUD

NAB Business Confidence

-3

 

1:30

AUD

New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m

-0.6%

 

9:00

EUR

Industrial Production m/m

0.6%

 

9:00

EUR

ZEW Economic Sentiment

-22.3

 

12:30

USD

Core Retail Sales m/m

-0.4%

 

12:30

USD

PPI m/m

0.1%

 

12:30

USD

Retail Sales m/m

-0.5%

 

14:00

USD

Business Inventories m/m

0.3%

Aug 15

0:30

AUD

Westpac Consumer Sentiment

3.7%

 

1:30

AUD

Wage Price Index q/q

0.9%

 

12:30

USD

Core CPI m/m

0.2%

 

12:30

USD

Empire State Manufacturing Index

7.4

 

13:00

USD

TIC Long-Term Purchases

55.0B

 

13:15

USD

Capacity Utilization Rate

78.9%

 

13:15

USD

Industrial Production m/m

0.4%

 

14:30

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

-3.7M

Aug 16

1:00

AUD

MI Inflation Expectations

3.3%

 

9:00

CHF

ZEW Economic Expectations

-42.5

 

9:00

EUR

CPI y/y

2.4%

 

12:30

USD

Building Permits

0.76M

 

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

361K

 

12:30

USD

Housing Starts

0.76M

 

14:00

USD

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

-12.9

Aug 17

6:00

EUR

German PPI m/m

-0.4%

 

8:00

EUR

Current Account

10.9B

 

13:55

USD

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

72.3

About the Author

Did you find this article useful?
Advertisement