The gold market had a tough week, but it is also worth noting that the week featured Christmas, which of course will work against the idea of liquidity being robust. At this point, we are testing a major area of support that must be held.
The gold market has been somewhat negative during the trading week as we continue to see a lot of questions asked of whether or not the market can withstand the higher interest rates in America. After all, higher interest rates do cause headaches for gold as gold is an asset that doesn’t pay any interest, so it’s easier to own paper than it is to store gold.
Furthermore, the strengthening US dollar had been a non-factor, but I think we are getting to the point where maybe it’s starting to cause a little bit of a headache. Beyond that, it’s also between two major holidays. So that makes a certain amount of sense itself as a reason why we might have a lack of liquidity and a lack of momentum one way or the other.
It wouldn’t surprise me to drift through the uptrend line and just go sideways for a couple of weeks. But if we break this trend line forcefully, then I think we could go as low as 2500 pretty quickly. I still believe in the uptrend longer term, but in the short term, I think the gold market is going to continue to have a lot of issues to deal with. And it doesn’t seem like it’s going anywhere anytime soon as the 10 year yield is now up 100 basis points in America after the Federal Reserve cut 100 basis points. That’s not normal. So, with that, I’d be cautious here and wait for the market to tell you what it wants to do.
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Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.