Gold (XAU) Daily Forecast: 200 EMA Supports Uptrend Above $2285

By:

Arslan Ali

Updated: May 6, 2024, 05:47 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

U.S. employment data miss increases speculation of a Fed rate cut, boosting gold prices.
Fed speeches this week may influence gold's trajectory; dovish tones could support gains.
Geopolitical calm reduces safe-haven demand, but monetary policy cues remain pivotal for gold.

In this article:

Gold

+1.35%

Market Overview

Gold (XAU/USD) price witnessed a rebound early Monday in Europe, breaking a two-day downturn. The unexpected weakness in the latest U.S. employment data has increased market speculation about a potential Federal Reserve rate cut in September, contributing to a decline in the U.S. dollar and benefiting gold, which is priced in dollars. Notably, lower interest rates could reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, thus possibly enhancing its appeal.

Impact of U.S. Employment Data on Gold Prices

The U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls for April increased by 175,000, a significant drop from March’s revised 315,000, and well below the anticipated 243,000. This miss bolstered expectations for a more dovish Fed policy.

Concurrently, the Unemployment Rate ticked up to 3.9% from 3.8%, and Average Hourly Earnings growth slowed to 3.9% year-over-year, down from 4.1% the previous month, highlighting potential softness in wage inflation.

Fed Officials’ Statements and Market Reaction

Upcoming speeches from Fed officials Thomas Barkin and John Williams are highly anticipated by gold traders for further cues. Any dovish hints could reinforce the current upward trajectory of gold prices.

Moreover, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman’s recent comments underscored the persistent risk of high inflation, suggesting a readiness to increase rates if necessary, which could impact gold markets.

Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Indicators

While the backdrop of easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East might temper the traditional safe-haven demand for gold, the market’s focus remains squarely on monetary policy cues.

Additionally, the latest ISM Services PMI showed a contraction, recording 49.4 in April, down from 51.4 in March and below expectations of 52.0, which could influence Fed decisions moving forward.

As the week progresses, gold prices might fluctuate based on these economic indicators and Fed commentary. With the odds of a September rate cut now standing at nearly 90%, up sharply following the employment report, investors are closely monitoring these developments to gauge the potential impact on the gold market.

Gold Prices Forecast

GOLD Price Chart

In today’s market, gold (XAU/USD) is slightly up, trading at $2309.705—a 0.36% increase. The commodity hovers around its pivot point at $2309.65, suggesting a critical juncture for the next price moves. If gold surpasses this level, it faces immediate resistance at $2328.74, with subsequent thresholds at $2351.65 and $2378.36. These barriers will test gold’s ability to sustain an upward trend.

Conversely, support levels are positioned at $2282.52, $2254.51, and $2230.01, which could provide stability in case of a price dip. The technical setup shows gold just above its 200-day EMA at $2284.47 and slightly below the 50-day EMA at $2316.33, indicating potential volatility. A sustained move above $2285 could keep the bullish trend intact while falling below might trigger significant sell-offs.

About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.

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