Gold (XAU) Daily Forecast: Climbs to $2,342 on Tensions; More Upside Ahead?

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Published: Jun 20, 2024, 06:28 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

Gold (XAU/USD) surged to a one-week high of $2,342.52, up 0.60% amid economic uncertainty.
Geopolitical tensions and European political uncertainties further boosted gold's safe-haven appeal.
U.S. Treasury yields rising due to rate cut expectations have limited gold’s potential gains.

Market Overview

Gold (XAU/USD) has recently achieved a one-week high of $2342.52, up 0.60%, in early European trading on Thursday. This rise reflects a broader market response to indications of slowing economic activity and diminishing inflation pressures in the U.S., which have sparked expectations that the Federal Reserve might implement two rate cuts this year.

These factors have increased investor interest in gold, typically sought after as a stable asset in times of economic uncertainty.

Geopolitical Factors and Economic Sentiments

The allure of gold has been further enhanced by ongoing geopolitical tensions and uncertainties within European politics.

Despite the Federal Reserve’s indication of a possible single rate cut in 2024, a surge in U.S. Treasury yields has rekindled interest in the dollar, potentially restraining further gains in gold prices.

Interest Rate Speculations and Market Impact

Market participants are treading carefully, wary of the timing for the anticipated rate cuts by the Fed. Although the central bank signaled a reduction in the rate cuts expected this year—from three to one—recent weak economic data from the U.S., including disappointing retail sales and subdued consumer prices, suggest that monetary easing could occur sooner than later, possibly as early as September.

Risks from Global Conflicts

Escalating military actions, such as Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian infrastructure and escalating tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, are critical concerns.

These events, coupled with political instability in France, underscore gold’s role as a safe haven during times of crisis.

Major Economic Events Today

Investors are bracing for pivotal updates from major central banks and crucial economic indicators. The spotlight is on the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and the Bank of England (BoE), both of which have key policy meetings that could influence market dynamics significantly.

In the United States, attention is drawn to several important data releases: Unemployment Claims are expected at 235,000, a slight improvement from the previous 242,000.

Building Permits are forecasted to show a modest increase to 1.45 million from 1.44 million, indicating potential growth in the housing sector. Additionally, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is anticipated to rise slightly to 4.8 from 4.5, suggesting a marginal expansion in regional manufacturing activity.

Short-term Forecast

Gold (XAU/USD) is anticipated to remain bullish above the pivot of $2,338.10, with potential resistance at $2,347.51 and $2,355.48.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold – Chart

Gold (XAU/USD) is currently experiencing upward momentum, registering a 0.60% increase to $2,342.52. Today’s trading dynamics are framed by key technical levels on the 4-hour chart.

The pivot point at $2,338.10 will be crucial in determining the next movements. Resistance levels are identified at $2,347.51 and $2,355.48, with further upward resistance at $2,365.44.

Conversely, support can be found at $2,311.36, with additional layers at $2,316.71 and $2,306.91.

Technical indicators reveal a Relative Strength Index poised around neutral. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) sits at $2,325.95, while the 200-day EMA is at $2,331.22, suggesting a robust support zone. The current market stance is bullish above the pivot of $2,338.10; however, falling below this mark could initiate a steep decline.

About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan, a webinar speaker and derivatives analyst, has an MBA in Finance and MPhil in Behavioral Finance. He guides financial analysis, trading, and cryptocurrency forecasting. Expert in trading psychology and sentiment.