Gold (XAU) Daily Forecast: Dips to $2,353; Buy Now?

By:

Arslan Ali

Published: May 13, 2024, 06:37 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

Key Inflation Data on Deck: CPI and PPI releases this week may drive gold prices and Fed decisions.
Mixed Fed Signals Add Uncertainty: Conflicting Fed views on rate cuts increase market volatility, impacting gold.
Geopolitical Tensions Bolster Gold: Israeli actions in Gaza heighten demand for gold as a safe haven.

In this article:

Gold

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Market Overview

Gold prices (XAU/USD) edged lower in Monday’s Asian session, dropping to $2,353 per ounce amid a strengthening U.S. dollar in anticipation of key inflation data releases. The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI), set for release on Tuesday, is expected to show a modest increase of 0.3% month over month. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), due Wednesday, is anticipated to rise by 0.4% from the previous month.

These reports could impact Federal Reserve policy decisions, particularly if inflation rates exceed forecasts, which might bolster the dollar further and negatively affect gold prices.

Federal Reserve’s Divergent Views on Monetary Policy

Recent statements from Federal Reserve officials illustrate the ongoing uncertainty in monetary policy. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly emphasized the necessity for sustained restrictive measures, projecting inflation rates to remain above the target.

Meanwhile, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic hinted at possible rate cuts later this year, assuming economic conditions soften as expected.

Geopolitical Developments Support Safe-Haven Assets

Amidst these economic uncertainties, geopolitical tensions continue to provide underlying support for gold. Recent escalations in Gaza have led to heightened market anxiety, with Israeli military actions intensifying over the weekend, suggesting potential for further regional instability.

As investors navigate through a week filled with high-impact economic indicators and ongoing geopolitical risks, the movements in gold prices will likely reflect a complex interplay of rate expectations, dollar strength, and global instability. With the Fed’s current policy rate at 2.5%, any deviation in the expected economic data could lead to significant swings in the precious metals market.

Gold Prices Forecast

Gold – Chart

Today’s technical analysis for Gold (XAU/USD) shows a minor decline, with the current price at $2,353.89, marking a decrease of 0.28%. The market is navigating around a critical pivot point at $2,362.16.

If gold breaks below this level, it may encounter downward momentum towards immediate support levels at $2,343.38 and $2,334.70, with a potential to reach $2,322.77 if the sell-off intensifies.

Resistance lies ahead at $2,379.06, $2,392.20, and $2,404.41. The 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages are at $2,330.66 and $2,297.20, respectively, suggesting underlying support. The technical setup indicates a bearish trend below the pivot, with the potential for reversal if it surpasses $2,362.16.

About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.

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