Gold (XAU) Daily Forecast: Geopolitical Risks Push Prices Toward $2,680 Resistance

Despite the potential headwind of a December rate cut, gold remains bolstered by its appeal as a hedge against volatility.

Fed Policy and Key Economic Data in Focus

Investors are closely watching U.S. jobless claims, expected to rise to 220,000 from 217,000, with data scheduled for release at 2:30 PM GMT. The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, forecasted at 7.4, signals a continued slowdown in economic activity, while existing home sales are projected to climb slightly to 3.95 million units from 3.84 million.

Federal Reserve policymakers have offered contrasting views on inflation and interest rates, keeping market participants on edge. One Fed governor cautioned about persistent inflation risks, while another pointed to progress in managing price pressures.

The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 56% likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December. While such a move could limit gold’s short-term gains, the broader outlook remains positive.

ETF Activity Reflects Strong Demand

SPDR Gold Trust, the largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, reported a 0.36% increase in holdings to 875.39 metric tons on Wednesday, signaling robust institutional demand.

Analysts suggest that while immediate gains may be influenced by the Fed’s rate decisions, gold’s resilience amid global uncertainty solidifies its appeal. “The long-term outlook remains favorable, given gold’s role as a store of value in unpredictable economic conditions,” noted Kyle Rodda, a financial analyst.

With a low-interest-rate environment and continued demand, gold prices are likely to maintain their upward trajectory in the near term. Investors remain focused on upcoming data and geopolitical developments to gauge the next market move.