Gold (XAU) Daily Forecast: Inflation Data and Fed Speeches Loom Over Gold’s Next Move

Market Overview

Gold prices (XAU/USD) continue to struggle, hovering around $2,606 and briefly touching an intra-day low of $2,605. The US Dollar’s strength, holding close to a four-month high, has added pressure on gold, a commodity priced in dollars.

This recent dollar rally is fueled by optimism around former President Donald Trump’s expected economic policies, which include tariffs and corporate tax cuts. These measures are anticipated to drive inflation higher, potentially influencing the Federal Reserve’s rate decisions.

US Dollar and Treasury Yields Impact Gold Prices

The broad-based strength in the US Dollar has spurred selling in gold, as a stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for international buyers. Rising US Treasury bond yields, bolstered by inflationary expectations linked to Trump’s policies, are also weighing on gold.

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari recently commented that the central bank seeks more substantial evidence that inflation will meet the 2% target before considering additional rate cuts, signaling a cautious approach.

Global Economic Concerns Offer Limited Support to Gold

While Trump’s fiscal policies aim to stimulate the US economy, his proposal for a 10% tariff on imports from all nations has raised concerns about a potential global trade conflict.

Such protectionist measures could disrupt international trade, offering limited support to gold as investors seek safe-haven assets amid uncertainty.

Market Awaits Key Economic Data and Fed Speeches

Looking ahead, investors are eyeing this week’s US inflation data and Producer Price Index, as these figures could shape the outlook for interest rates and, consequently, gold prices.

Additionally, speeches from several Federal Reserve officials, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell, are anticipated to provide insights into the central bank’s approach to future rate moves.

As traders await these indicators, gold’s trajectory will likely remain under the influence of the dollar’s strength and evolving economic policies in the United States.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold remains under pressure, trading around $2,605 as a strong dollar and rising Treasury yields weigh heavily. Key support at $2,601 could signal further downside if breached.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold is trading at $2,605.27, down 0.55%, and the pressure is building below the key pivot at $2,624.81. Currently, the next immediate support is at $2,601.53, with additional support levels at $2,575.74 and $2,557.50, signaling a cautious outlook if prices continue to slide.

Resistance levels sit above at $2,642.84 and $2,657.26, which could act as caps if buyers step in.

The 50-day EMA at $2,669.29 and the 200-day EMA at $2,701.91 indicate a broader bearish trend, while a bearish engulfing candle on the chart reinforces downside momentum. Unless gold breaks back above $2,624.81, sellers are likely to remain in control.